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Weather To Watch

2015 Pollen PM

As showers become more prevalent Monday night into Tuesday, the pollen levels will drop a bit so that is great news for everyone who is allergic to tree pollen. The rain will be showery in nature with the band of heaviest rain early Monday evening as a trough of low pressure pinwheels in from the Maritimes. The moist air will continue to crank out some showers part of Tuesday as drier air slowly pushes southeastward across the region

 

gfs_mslp_uv850_conus2_20March had a precipitation deficit of 1.27" and April is running more than an inch below average so some beneficial rain would be great for the dry surface conditions and the water table. No long-lasting heavy rain is anticipated this week unless the ocean storm depicted here materializes. While this model has been advertising the scenario for a while, other guidance is not phasing in the southern and northern stream energy to create a monster like this. Instead, for now, I will buy the solution that the northern bundle may kick off a few showers as the ocean storm stays at sea south of New England on Friday.

gfs_t2m_f_conus_33Beyond that, the weather in watch will be the shift in the steering currents to drive much warmer weather east-northeastward into New England. It may take some time to arrive in full force as a couple of showers associated with a warm frontal boundary pass through next weekend. It is possible to be near 70 on Sunday but seems like it just has to surge well into the 70s and perhaps eclipse 80 in places away from south-facing coastal areas next Monday. Read it out loud. How does that sound? Map Courtesy: WeatherBell.

2015_WaitingFor70Conclusion: I am forecasting Boston's first day at 70 degrees or higher to occur next Monday May 4. You can see here that the top 5 latest 70-degree  days happened May 10 or later.

In the longer range, I am expecting the mean temperature for May to end up at 1 to 1.5 degrees above the average. It looks like April will end up nearly flat like April 2014.

Make it a great week!

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