The Ice Box Of America - New England
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Maybe it's just me, but have you stopped feeling cold? I found myself staring up at the sun the other day thinking 'hey it's pretty nice out.' Then checked the temp and it was 19F. This must be what people in Minnesota feel like (note to self, never move to Minnesota). It's been so steadily cold for weeks now that there's a chance some of us are getting used to it. A few years ago I'd never go out for a run when it was in the 10s. Way too cold. Now 14F feels fine. Wild times we have been living in this winter.
So is it just plain 'February cold' or is this something more impressive? Well we could start by looking at the 'gold standard' for cold in New England, which is February of 1934. It's the coldest month ever recorded in Boston, with an average temp of only 17.5F. That my friends is brutal cold. It's the only month here that's had an average monthly temp in the teens, with records going back to the 1870s. In more recent history, the last time we had an arctic stretch like this was in 2004, which came close to having an average in the 10s. Many remember an iconic moment of that January/February stretch as the insanely cold Patriots playoff game vs the Titans. The halftime temp was 3F...ugh! We won that game, by the way.
Now we're seeing high concentrations of harbor ice that haven't been matched since that winter. I was able to speak with a spokesperson for Boston Harbor Cruises on Tuesday, who said the ice breakers can't even get through the ice in Hingham. The MBTA hasn't been able to run consistently because a channel can't be kept open - a situation they haven't had since 2004. Mass Bay ice is increasing and there are also some good sized hunks in the Long Island Sound. And of course there's our snow, which generally has been just staring us in the face after falling instead of melting away over time.
Through the first 17 days of this month, the average temp in Boston is on pace for the 2nd coldest February ever recorded, and possibly the 2nd coldest month of any. We're right around 18F - threatening to become only the 2nd month with an average temp in the 10s. That's a departure of nearly -13F! Such an anomaly vs average blows away last winter's cold, which was regarded by many as pretty miserable. It's also helped to give us these huge snow totals because the ratios have been exceptionally high (powdery snow, less liquid needed to produce lots of snow).
On tap there's plenty more where this came from. The pattern remains fairly locked in, although it doesn't look *quite* as intense as it has been. Believe it or not the average high this time of year is 40! I can't even imagine how great 40 degrees is going to feel when we hit it and have some sunshine to get us there (hasn't been done since January 19th). That's the beauty I suppose of a very cold stretch - the standard is set so low that it's not going to take much to feel comfortable outside. Looking forward, the jet stream may end up delivering the core of the coldest air just off to our west - an area that's been largely spared up to this point. I'd expect us to stay below average, but after this Friday the departures won't be as large.
We may be able to pull off a neat trick before February comes to a close. To this point, every single day has seen below average temps this month. That trend will easily continue through Saturday. The only real potential question mark for this streak is Sunday. An incoming storm (that's a whole other blog) will need to be watched, as it's still unclear who will end up on the warmer side and who will end up on the colder side of a boundary. *IF* we can somehow manage something near 40 for a high in Boston and 30 for a low, the streak could end. But if we get past it, I'd say there's a very high likelihood that the entire month will feature all below average days. That streak actually goes back to January 25th.
There's yet another record that's about to get obliterated, and it's for the most days stuck below freezing in any calendar month for recorded Boston history (goes back to 1872). The record for such futility is 18 days set in 1885, with that epic 1934 February coming in second place. That record will bet set by Saturday, in only 21 days. Extremely remarkable territory. Sunday is our only shot at topping the freezing mark for the rest of the month it seems, so we should be able to tack on another 5 or 6 days. So all told, in the shortest month of the year, we should be able to set the mark for subfreezing air with either 24 or 25 days!! Living history, people.
But since everyone likes to pull the whole 'Where's global warming' card when we have a cold stretch or it snows a lot (a real tired act)...here's a glimpse at the larger picture. The first step is to realize that we're a gnat on the map compared to the entire Earth climate system. What happens here doesn't factor in much to the overall picture. To look just at the U.S. (another small piece) - the past 60 days have seen a magnitude of warmth that has been much greater in the west than our cold has been in the Northeast. In fact, their streaks are more impressive than ours, too. San Francisco has seen 44 straight days above average and counting. Many areas are on pace for their warmest winter ever recorded. Skiing competitions and events are being canceled left and right because some mountains have seen less snow than we have here on Cape Cod! New England has literally been the coldest and snowiest spot in the country. Hooray for us.
Looking even a little farther out, you can see that the whole globe is running well above average so far in 2015. The really interesting part is that our little corner is approximately the coldest spot on planet Earth relative to average so far. You know what's out your window, but remember that weather is a balancing act and there's always someone on the opposite end of the spectrum taking the heat for your chilly pain!
