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The Next Nor'Easter

BOSTON_biggest_JANUARY_snows

 

Welcome To February! This is the final month of meteorological winter but, astronomically, the vernal equinox or the beginning of spring doesn't happen until 6:45 pm on March 20. Boston's temperatures, on average, start out at 37 on February 1 and rise up to 41 by the end of the month for the highs with 22 up to 27 for the lows. The average snowfall in February is around 11.2" but many of Boston's biggest snowstorms on record have happened during this month such as the Presidents' Day Blizzard in 2003 at 27.5", the Blizzard of 1978 at 27.1" and the Blizzard of February 8-9, 2013 at 24.9". The Full Snow Moon occurs at 6:09 on February 3rd.

The January review reveals cold to very cold weather for much of the month with the mean temperature close to 4 degrees below average. Last week's blizzard of 24.6" turned out to be Boston's biggest January snowstorm on record surpassing the 22.3" on January 22-23, 2005. With that, the monthly snowfall total was suddenly hoisted into 6th place for the snowiest month of January on record dating back to 1892. The seasonal snowfall total has quickly risen to 37.2" for Boston and 55.2" for Worcester. On our weather special in November, the WBZ Weather Team snowfall predicted above average snowfall by 10-20" for most of the region which equates to 55-65" for Boston. At the time, I mentioned in my blogs that those numbers might end up being a bit conservative as factors favored a harsh winter. We shall see but it certainly seems we're headed in that direction with several potential storms still in the pipeline and relentless cold into at least mid-February.

D_2013_HOUR_BY_HOUR_PRECIP_CLOUDSThat brings us to the impending storm which is destined to commence in the early morning hours tomorrow. So if you are headed out to Super Bowl parties and gatherings later this afternoon and evening, you will not be faced with snow falling on the way home. At 7 am tomorrow, travel will already be hazardous and many cancellations are likely. I am expecting 1-2" of new snow by then with 6" by noon. Every storm is different in some way, shape or form and this one, thankfully, will not turn into a copy of last week's blitz. The bulk of the accumulation over much of the region will occur from 5 am to 5 pm. This storm, however, will likely contain some sleet, freezing rain and even some rain unlike the straight snow case of its predecessor.

 

jan29MONDAY12013_Model Satrad 72hr.png1The storm should make a closer pass to southern New England resulting in milder air moving in at mid-levels to cause a switch to some sleet and freezing rain to make quite a mess mainly near and south of the MA Pike. A turn to plain rain is most likely over Cape Cod and parts of coastal Plymouth County. Presently, most indicators point to snow to sleet in Boston with temperatures rising into the 26-30 range but well west from western Middlesex County west and north, the cold dense air will hold with temperatures in the teens to near 20 tomorrow afternoon. The mix zone will turn back to snow later in the afternoon as colder air at all levels is drawn back eastward.

jan29MONDAYWith all of that in mind, I am currently projecting these snowfall amounts across the region. The snow will be fluffiest west and north of Boston with a wetter snow to the mix farther south of the city.

The wind will increase to 20-45 mph from the northeast along the coast with a more northerly wind 15-35 mph farther inland. The high tides occur at 10:05 am and 10:38 pm. The scheduled height of the storm with a projected slight surge suggests that coastal flooding is of less concern this time around. Only pockets of mostly minor flooding are anticipated at this point but it does bear watching. Some of the strongest wind may occur after the storm has passed as it continues to intensify offshore but the wind will have more of an offshore component at that time. Seas will become rough again and there will certainly be more beach erosion.

Looking ahead, Tuesday will be bright and rather blustery with highs in the upper teens to near 20 followed by highs near 30 and a risk of flurries to an inch or two of snow later Wednesday and Wednesday night from an approaching frontal boundary and weak low pressure system crossing northern New England. Another mass of arctic air will rush in on a gusty cold wind on Thursday with highs then in the teens with some subzero readings on Friday morning.

Watch our updates on WBZ News and follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Have a great day and GO PATS!!!!!!!

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