Massarotti: 49 Observations Ahead Of Super Bowl XLIX
PHOENIX (CBS) -- By now, we have examined everything from physics and air pressure to the read option and the cover-3, from the bubbly Pete Carroll to the grumpy Bill Belichick. The Patriots are the San Francisco 49ers of this era, entering Super Bowl XLIX, and by late this afternoon, the game will be precisely 49 hours away.
And so, as we inch closer to kickoff in what could very well be a game for the ages, here are 49 thoughts, statistics and observations – in no particular order – entering Super Bowl XLIX:
1. Patriots coach Bill Belichick has made a career of exposing dual-threat quarterbacks to be anything but, from Kordell Stewart to Tim Tebow and beyond. But Russell Wilson still may be the greatest such challenge he has ever encountered. In the NFL this season, there were nine instances in which a quarterback passed for at least 200 yards, ran for at least 40 and finished with an above-average passer rating, which is to say that he ran and threw productively and efficiently. Wilson had six of them.
2. In five career Super Bowls, Tom Brady has a career passer rating of 93.8 with nine touchdowns, two interceptions and a completion percentage of 64.5. But does anyone else think the Patriots can win this game without Tom Brady being at his best?
3. Oddly, Patriots kicker Stephen Gostkowski and Seattle kicker Steven Hauschka each have attempted (and made) only one field goal this postseason, none from 40 yards or beyond. Gostkowski made 35-of-37 kicks during the regular season. Hauschka was 31-of-37, ranking first and fifth in the league in percentage of kicks made.
4. During the last three seasons, with Wilson at quarterback, Marshawn Lynch has averaged 86.5 rushing yards per game. When Lynch has hit that number, including playoffs, the Seahawks have gone 25-5.
5. No offense, but if I were building a secondary, I'd take Richard Sherman over Darrelle Revis for the long-term. It's impossible to ignore that Sherman is three years younger. But Sunday, for one game? As Deion Sanders said, I'll take both.
6. The Seahawks allowed just 17 touchdown passes this season, second-fewest in the NFL to only the Buffalo Bills. Of those, 11 were caught by opposing tight ends, including three by Antonio Gates in Seattle's early-season loss to San Diego. All together now: Can the 'Hawks cover Rob Gronkowski?
7. Extrapolating that data further, the Seahawks allowed six touchdown passes this season to wide receivers and running backs. Six.
8. Everyone knows this statistic already, but it's too good to leave off this list: in his career, Wilson is 10-0 against quarterbacks who have won a Super Bowl, including 1-0 against the Patriots and Brady.
9. According to the folks at Pro Football Focus, the Patriots were the sixth-best run defense in the NFL this season. The Seahawks were 10th. Offensively, with regard to run blocking, the Pats (10th) also ranked higher than the Seahawks (18th). If you are among those who believes the running games will be the key to Sunday's game, this is good news.
10. Kam Chancellor is a bad, bad man. But do we know yet if he can cover?
11. Which reminds me: what's the over-under for penalties committed by Brandon Browner in this game?
12. Carroll and the Seahawks certainly deserve credit for cutting ties with Percy Harvin during the season, but anyone who watched the NFC Championship Game knows the Seahawks missed Harvin on the field in that game. In last year's Super Bowl, Harvin touched the ball four times and had 137 total yards, including an 87-yard kickoff return for a touchdown.
13. Take a good look at that Seattle defense, from the defensive line through the secondary. People in the secondary (Sherman, Chancellor) are essentially the same size as the linebackers (K.J. Wright, Bruce Irvin) and defensive linemen (Cliff Avril). This is the definition of a cookie-cutter defense.
14. Is there anyone out there who still thinks the Patriots' Super Bowl chances ended when Jerod Mayo got hurt? Look, Mayo is a good player. But Dont'a Hightower and Jamie Collins combined for more big plays this season than Mayo has made in his career.
15. You just know Super Bowl hype and talk is reaching absurd levels when Tom Brady calls James Develin the best fullback in the NFL.
16. Gronkowski has 59 regular season and postseason touchdowns in his career. The Patriots are 36-6 when Gronk finds the end zone. They have won the last nine times he has scored.
17. Carroll is currently 8-4 in his playoff career, a winning percentage of .667. Among men who have coached at least 10 postseason games, Carroll ranks behind only Vince Lombardi, Tom Flores, Bill Walsh, Joe Gibbs and Belichick in career postseason winning percentage. All have won multiple Super Bowls.
18. Does anyone else feel like Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola will be keys if the Patriots are to win this game – and that they will have to endure a physical pounding in the process?
19. Seattle finished with 130 penalties this season, most in the NFL. The Patriots were flagged 120 times, tied for fourth. In terms of penalty yards, the Seahawks and Patriots finished a respective fifth and third. And people still believe that all penalties are bad?
20. Excluding a meaningless season finale against Buffalo, the Patriots were 11-2 with Bryan Stork in the lineup this season. One of the losses was at Green Bay. Stork, who was injured in the divisional playoff against Baltimore, is expected to play Sunday.
21. Again, according to Pro Football Focus, the Patriots ranked 28th among the 32 teams this season in pass blocking. Seattle was seventh in generating a pass rush. This is further ammunition for those who believe the Patriots need to run the ball
22. If I'm the Pats, I put Cameron Fleming on the left side and run at Cliff Avril, who is undersized at defensive end and, according to Pro Football Focus, ranked 17th among the 26 NFL defensive ends who played at least 50 percent of his team's snaps. By contrast, Michael Bennett, who plays opposite Avril, ranked first against the run.
23. Vegas has to have a prop bet on whether Lynch grabs his junk in the Super Bowl, right? But at least the people in Seattle can joke about it.
24. Further evidence that the kickers in this game may be a wash: Gostkowski ranked 10th in touchback percentage during the regular season. Hauschka ranked just a whisker behind at 12th.
25. Once again, Seattle has ranked first in the NFL in scoring defense over each of the past three seasons at 15.2 points per game. No one else is within a field goal.
26. If you like good safety play, the Seahawks are your team. Earl Thomas and Chancellor are the best tandem in the business, bar none.
27. Just a reminder that prior to the AFC Championship, when the Pats put an emphasis on running the ball, Amendola had 17 catches over the span of three games, totaling 168 yards with two touchdowns. Both scores came in the divisional playoff against Baltimore.
28. Melissa Stark shouldn't be a sports reporter. She should be a model. But I'm not complaining.
29. OK, I think I found something the Seahawks aren't good at: punting. Jon Ryan's net average ranks 27th in the league. The Seahawks allowed better than 10 yards per return, including one touchdown.
30. Feels like this game has to feature at least one trick play, right? Maybe even one per team?
31. No cheating. How many of you can name the top three receivers on Seattle's depth chart?
32. Not sure why this is popping into my head now, but did anyone else expect more from Shane Vereen this year?
33. Speaking of which, let's not just assume that LeGarrette Blount will be the only Patriots running back to get significant touches in this game. If Blount struggles, Jonas Gray is still a good option. Gray is smaller, but he is sturdy and quicker than Blount.
34. According to Pro Football Focus, Wilson had more dropbacks under pressure than any quarterback in the league this season. And while Wilson ranked 21st in passer rating against the blitz this season, flushing him out of the pocket introduces the variable of Wilson's mobility. Do the Patriots really want to go there?
35. If you are into such details, Wilson ran on third down a total of 24 times this season and collected 11 first downs. Colin Kaepernick and Cam Newton were the only quarterbacks to run more, and neither is the passer or decision-maker that Wilson is.
36. So far in the postseason, the Patriots have had the best third-down defense in the NFL, allowing a conversion just 20 percent of the time. Of course, against Baltimore, the Pats frequently couldn't get to third down because they were getting gashed on first and second downs.
37. During the regular season, the Seahawks ranked eighth in third-down defense. The Patriots ranked 16th.
38. Seattle tight end Luke Wilson is no Gronkowski and he hardly qualifies as a household name. But in the last four games, Wilson has three touchdown receptions, which bears mentioning.
39. According to Pro Football Focus, Patrick Chung ranked third among all NFL safeties this season. Chung had a good year overall, but he still ranks just 25th among 51 qualifying safeties in coverage.
40. Also according to Pro Football Focus, Earl Thomas (fifth) and Devin McCourty (eighth) rank among the top 10 at their position overall. Thomas is better against the pass. McCourtry is better against the run.
41. Here's a good one for Patriots fans: according to Pro Football Focus: Carolina's Luke Kuechly (formerly of Boston College) was the best linebacker in football this year. Nos. 2 and 3? Hightower and Collins, in that order. Bobby Wagner of Seattle's underrated linebacking corps was fourth.
42. Answer to earlier question regarding Seattle's receiving corps: Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse and Ricardo Lockette are the top three receivers on Seattle's depth chart. In the last two postseasons, Kearse has 11 catches for 298 yards and four touchdowns, including the game-winner in overtime during this year's NFC Championship Game.
43. The Patriots and Seahawks had five common opponents this year: Green Bay, Denver, San Diego, Kansas City and Oakland. The Seahawks played Green Bay twice, going 4-2. The Patriots played everyone once, going 3-2. Kansas City was the only club to defeat both the Patriots and the Seahawks.
44. Seattle has not lost since the 24-20 loss at Kansas City in Week 11, going 8-0. The Patriots meanwhile, have gone 12-2 since the KC defeat, though one of the losses was a meaningless Week 17 affair in Foxboro against the Buffalo Bills.
45. More from Pro Football Focus: Sherman was rated the third best corner overall in the NFL – that factors in both coverage and run support – while Revis was fourth. (Denver's Chris Harris and Vontae Davis of Indianapolis were first and second, respectively.) Purely in coverage, Revis was fourth and Sherman was fifth.
46. During the final two minutes of the half or game, Wilson has just a 78.5 passer rating this season, a number that ranks 21st among NFL quarterbacks. Brady, interestingly, ranks 26th with a rating of 73.1.
47. In two overtime games this year – one in the regular season vs. Denver, one in the NFC Championship vs. Green Bay – Wilson ran four times for 21 yards and completed 7-of-9 passes for 115 yards and one touchdown, a passer rating of 155.8. (A perfect rating is 158.3.) In each instance, Seattle won the game by scoring a touchdown on the very first possession.
48. The Seahawks are the first team to reach consecutive Super Bowls since the Patriots of 2003-04 and 12 overall. On the previous 11 occasions, the returning team has gone 8-3.
49. If you haven't listened to the Sports Hub's interview with Chris Russo from earlier this week, you are encouraged to do so. Nobody says "Belichick" quite like the Mad Dog.
Enjoy the game.
Tony Massarotti co-hosts the Felger and Massarotti Show on 98.5 The Sports Hub weekdays from 2-6 p.m. Follow him on Twitter @TonyMassarotti. You can read more from Tony by clicking here.
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