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Several Inches Of Snow Expected Saturday

BOSTON (CBS) -- Let's face it, we really haven't been challenged all that much yet this winter. Other than a few light snowfalls, your commutes have largely been on bare ground. I bet there are a good number of you who haven't even taken the snow blower out of the garage yet after the late fall tune up. Meteorologically speaking, up until now, it has been fairly smooth sailing as well, no real difficult forecasts. And finally, at this rate, the kids might actually be getting out of school on time in June, there have just been a smattering of delays and cancellations due to snow and cold.

But alas, it is still quite early by New England winter standards. There are still a solid 6-8 weeks of potential winter snowstorms, and we all know the weather here can literally change in an instant.
Is that "change" about to happen? Perhaps.

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What better way to kick off the true start of snow season than with a real challenge this weekend. I am sure you have heard by now, there is a high potential of a nor'easter-type storm on Saturday. You would think a storm tracking south of New England in late January would be a slam dunk for significant snow, but this one is much trickier than that. There are several factors at play when considering how much snow we will see with this weekend's storm…

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map 2
(WBZ-TV graphic)

Pro-snow factors:
This storm is literally coming right out of the Gulf of Mexico. When the jet stream dives this deep, a significant amount of moisture is drawn in. . . no doubt it will be a juicy one.

The storm will likely undergo "Bombogenesis" as it passes by just south of New England. A fancy way of saying that the storm will develop very rapidly as it traverses the Atlantic from the Carolina Coastline to the waters south of Nantucket. The central pressure is expected to drop nearly 40 millibars in just 24 hours, creating a very intense, powerful system.

Saturday-storm
(WBZ-TV graphic)

Anti-snow factors:
There is low pressure over Eastern Canada. . . so what you say? Well, typically to get a classic New England winter storm you need high pressure to anchor itself to our north. This would provide a continuous source of cold air and a significant pressure gradient. Without this high pressure, temperatures will likely remain very marginal (near 32) and the precipitation shield will likely have a sharper cutoff to the north and west.

This storm will also be a very fast mover. There is nothing downstream to block its forward progress, so it will really motor through here. Therefore we have a limited amount of time to work with, perhaps 6-12 hours from about 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. on Saturday.

OK, OK, so get to the forecast, right? Here goes. . .

 

saturday-snow-map
(WBZ-TV graphic)

Saturday Morning:

Clouds are already in place and some light rain and snow showers will break out around dawn along the south coast. The precipitation shield will spread north during the morning bringing light snow to Essex, Middlesex and Worcester Counties and a rain/snow/sleet mix in Boston and in southeastern Massachusetts. Not much snow accumulation in the morning, perhaps a coating to an inch or so in spots.

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(WBZ-TV graphic)

Saturday Afternoon:
The precipitation ramps up and becomes steadier and heavier. However, there is a sharp cutoff to the north and west. Most of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine will be shut out from this storm, with only extreme southern and coastal sections of N.H. and Maine getting in on the northern fringe. Snow should begin to accumulate fairly readily by late afternoon in the nearby northern and western suburbs of Boston (128 to 495 and Route 2). Boston/SE MA will still be mixing, but getting closer to a changeover to snow by dusk. Could be as much as 2-4" by 6 p.m. in areas where precipitation is all snow in the afternoon.

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(WBZ-TV graphic)

Saturday Evening/Night: The storm is at its "peak" early in the evening. The majority of snow accumulation will likely happen before 8 p.m. Any mix or rain in and around the City of Boston will change to snow. Same for southeastern Massachusetts down to the Cape Cod Canal. There will be a gradual collapse of the rain/snow line from north to south as winds veer from the northeast to a more northerly (colder) direction. After 8 p.m., the storm quickly accelerates past New England and the snow tapers off. Several inches may accumulate between 4 p.m. and 8 p.m. in Eastern Massachusetts. 3-6" is certainly possible when all is said and done, and at this point we cannot rule out some areas topping the 6" mark if some significant banding occurs.

map 5
(WBZ-TV graphic)

Winds: The strongest winds will likely occur as the storm is passing by our area and the winds veer to the north-northwest. Gusts between 35-55 mph are possible, especially along the immediate coastline and over Cape Cod and the Islands. Peak winds will occur Saturday evening and overnight. Expect a blustery day on Sunday as well.

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(WBZ-TV graphic)

Coastal Flooding: Not expecting any significant coastal issues. Tides are relatively high astronomically speaking, but the storm will be moving so quickly, the seas will not have much time to build. We will keep a close eye on the 2 a.m. Sunday high tide, mainly along the north-facing beaches in Cape Cod Bay.

Because of all the complicating factors with this storm, there will likely need to be some tweaking to the forecast in the next 24 hours. A slight shift in track would mean changes to the rain/snow line and position of any heavy snow banding. At this time, it appears to be a moderate snow event centered around Saturday afternoon and evening and confined to Southern New England. As always, stay tuned! And you might wanna check that snow blower one last time…

Follow Terry on Twitter @TerryWBZ

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