Colts-Patriots What To Watch For: Indy Still Has No Answer For Gronk
BOSTON (CBS) -- And so, once more, it comes down to this: a Colts-Patriots AFC Championship Game in Foxboro.
To be sure, this iteration of the rivalry lacks much of the fanfare that came when the two teams met in the early 2000s. At least from a New England perspective, the Colts-Pats rivalry died when Peyton Manning missed the 2011 season and subsequently relocated to Dove Valley. Indeed, the intensity that permeated New England for the '03 and '04 divisional rounds as well as the '06 championship game has been dialed back quite a bit.
Still, this is the AFC Championship Game we're talking about. A trip to the Super Bowl is on the line. As was the case last weekend both in Foxboro and Denver, once that ball is kicked on Sunday night at Gillette, there's no telling what's going to happen.
Yet we know enough about these teams to make some educated forecasts about what to expect on Sunday evening.
Another Stampede?
The key to the game begins and ends here: Can the Colts even remotely stop the run?
Obviously, when these teams met two months ago, the story of the game was Jonas Gray and the Patriots running game. Gray ran for 201 yards and four touchdowns, accounting for roughly 50 percent of his career rushing yards and exactly 80 percent of his career touchdowns. And to that point, it was 61 percent of his career rushing yards and infinity percent (∞%) of his touchdowns.
Clearly, this was not an elite running back showing off his skills over a decent defense. Instead, it was pure dominance of one team over another, and if the Colts can flip that script at least a little bit, the game will once again be completely one-sided.
There are plenty of reasons to believe we won't see another stampede this time around. For one, Bill Belichick said just this week while breaking down the Ravens film and describing Devin McCourty's interception that it's not a great idea to get too repetitive in the NFL.
"A lot of times I hear from the fans or sportscasters, 'Why don't you keep doing [whatever] was working? Why don't you keep doing that? Why don't you keep doing it? It was working. Why did you change it? Why didn't you keep doing it?' Well, that's one of the reasons," Belichick said. "It's hard in this league to just keep doing the same thing over and over again against players like that. They see it the second time around, and they nail it."
In addition to the unlikelihood of a Belichick-coached team bringing a predictable game plan to the AFC Championship Game, there's also a significant personnel change. Patriots center Bryan Stork is likely not going to play due to a knee injury, while Colts defensive tackle Arthur Jones did not play back in Week 11 but will be playing this Sunday. That's a huge loss and huge addition on opposite sides of the line, so the Patriots' knife will be a bit less warm as it tries to slice through the Colts' butter.
(That was kind of weird. Sorry.)
Still, the Patriots will have to move the ball on the ground, especially if the weather is wet and windy like some forecasts call for. They don't need to gain 246 yards on 44 carries, but they will need to involve either Gray or LeGarrette Blount, who himself carved up the Colts to the tune of 166 yards and four touchdowns on 24 carries. So the challenge for the Colts is to prove they can stop the run. But when stacking the box means giving Tom Brady numerous lanes to throw the ball, that task becomes quite tricky.
How the Colts respond to that challenge will determine whether this one stays tight or whether the Patriots turn it into another laugher.
Little Luck In A Big Game
Really ever since his senior year at Stanford, the consensus among anyone with a football opinion has been that Andrew Luck is the best young quarterback in the game, and he's the heir apparent to take the reins from Brady and Manning as the league's greatest QB for the next decade-plus. And in many ways, Luck has lived up to the hype, as he led the NFL in touchdown passes this year (40) and continues to knock off more "youngest quarterback to ever do X" accomplishments than you can keep track of.
Yet in the postseason, it's been a bit of a different story, and against the Patriots, he's been downright dreadful.
His career completion percentage of 58.6 drops to 53.8 percent against the Patriots, against whom he's thrown six touchdowns and eight interceptions. His turnovers are largely responsible for the Colts getting outscored by 78 points over three games.
His career postseason numbers, despite a good game against Cincinnati two weeks ago, aren't spectacular either, as he's thrown nine touchdowns and 10 interceptions.
He's 3-2 as a starter, because he's gotten away with some mistakes against Kansas City last year and Denver this year. But if he wants to win in Foxboro, where very few quarterbacks not named Brady do, he will have very little room for error. Those lazy interceptions from last week won't fly this time around. And the fact that he'll be up against a motivated Darrelle Revis, who didn't have his best game last weekend, doesn't make the task any easier.
Unstoppable Force Meets ... Sergio Brown?
This one probably goes without saying, but I'll say it anyway: Rob Gronkowski is unstoppable, and until a team figures out a way to lessen the tight end's impact, he will always be a one-man game -changer.
Consider that Gronkowski caught seven passes for 108 yards and a touchdown in last week's win, and nobody has really mentioned it. Everybody was more concerned with Danny Amendola stepping up, Julian Edelman throwing a touchdown and Bill Belichick drawing up some wacky formations. Nobody has written much at all about Gronkowski.
That's because, I believe, Gronkowski did exactly what we all believe Gronkowski should do. Because again, he's unstoppable.
In his last nine games, he's caught 58 passes for 823 yards and nine touchdowns. Just once in that span he's been held to less than 71 receiving yards, and just twice has he been kept out of the end zone. And one of those games in which he didn't score came against the Lions, who dedicated so much attention on No. 87 that they left Tim Wright wide open for two easy scores.
Oh, and the last time Gronkowski faced the Colts, he did this:
https://vine.co/v/O5UiKjFVxAg
And this:
https://vine.co/v/O5UVVaL9TEM
Even though Sergio Brown claimed that he "had straps" on Gronkowski, the fact remains that Gronkowski embarrassed that entire Colts team last time around. Unless the Colts have magically acquired a 6-foot-6 mega man who can match Gronkowski physically, it should happen again.
"... Who Was Andrew Luck's Roommate At Stanford ... "
For all I know, there might be a number of interesting tidbits about Colts tight end Coby Fleener. Perhaps he's a big fan of Pearl Jam and tries his darndest to learn to play their songs on guitar. Maybe his favorite food is alligator. Perhaps his father was a monk. I don't know!
The only thing I do know about Fleener is what every broadcaster says about Fleener every time he makes a catch in a football game: Fleener was Luck's roommate at Stanford.
Much like they enjoy telling you that Julian Edelman was a quarterback in college, and much like they enjoy telling you that Antonio Gates and Jimmy Graham played college basketball, they love telling you that Fleener slept in a bed near Luck back in college.
I know that, but I also know this: While Fleener won't be able to match Gronkowski in terms of impact, he still will create quite the headache for the Patriots' defense.
Fleener was a menace in that November meeting, catching season-high seven passes for a career-high 144 yards. Tight ends tend to cause the most trouble for Belichick's defense -- think Travis Kelce catching a career-high eight passes for 93 yards and a touchdown in Week 4, Scott Chandler hauling in six catches for a career-high 105 yards in Week 6, etc. -- and Fleener was one of the best against them this year.
If there's anyone who might disrupt the Patriots' plans on Sunday night, it's probably Coby Fleener.
Did you know he was Andrew Luck's roommate at Stanford?
Defensive Pride
So many people bought into the Patriots as legitimate Super Bowl contenders this season for basically two reasons:
1. Healthy Rob Gronkowski
2. Much-Improved Defense
Yet in the Patriots' first playoff game, that "improved" defense looked like the same old Patriots, the team that allowed an average of 27 points per game in playoff losses since 2009. Darrelle Revis had a decent second half, but he gave up a touchdown and was flagged for a 20-yard pass interference penalty in the first half. Brandon Browner got called for a long PI of his own, but he didn't even do enough to break up the pass, which was caught near the goal line.
Overall, the Patriots allowed a team that averaged 365 yards and 25.6 points per game to gain 428 yards and score 31.
Yet in the second half, realizing that surrendering 28 points in 35 minutes was simply not good enough, the defense rallied. Devin McCourty came up with a third-quarter interception, and the defense came up with a red-zone stop in the fourth quarter, one which forced Baltimore to settle for a field goal prior to the Patriots' game-winning drive. And when Baltimore was driving with desperation to take a lead in the final minutes, Duron Harmon made a play on a deep ball and came down with the game-clinching interception.
The defense -- the unit that finished the year having not allowed a second-half touchdown in the final six weeks -- dug deep and rediscovered its pride. Perhaps this week, they'll all be motivated to take care of business from the opening kickoff. Based on their response last weekend, and with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, it's hard to imagine the defense will be playing anything but inspired football.
Read more from Michael Hurley by clicking here. You can email him or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.
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