What To Watch For: Gronk's Playoff Party And The Search For The Real Tom Brady
BOSTON (CBS) -- Playoff byes may be wonderful for players and coaches who get to rest and prepare, but for those of us who are left without football for two weeks, the downtime can seem interminable.
Fortunately, the wait is close to ending, and the time for football is nearing.
The Patriots and Ravens will kick off in Foxboro on Saturday afternoon. It's going to be cold and it's going to be breezy, but that's about all we know about what will take place at Gillette Stadium.
While the history of this matchup has been rehashed over and over again this week by every sports voice in the world, the fact of the matter is that nothing that happened in the past will mean much this time around.
With that in mind, here's a look at What To Watch For when this game finally gets underway.
Flacco Going Deep
Joe Flacco is the quarterback of the Ravens (you might have heard!), and he's also had a very successful postseason career (ditto!).
Even though his playoff passer rating (88.2) is just slightly higher than his regular-season passer rating (84.8), the 29-year-old has earned the reputation of being a big-time playoff performer.
And a lot of that comes thanks to the Patriots, who have allowed him to throw for five touchdowns (and three interceptions, which also get swept under many rugs) in three games.
Yet while Flacco's 10-4 record is undeniable, in how many of those wins has Flacco been the best player on the field?
No, instead of holding irrational fears of Flacco beating the Patriots with pinpoint precision and impeccable decision-making, there is one thing that should haunt the minds of many folks in New England: penalty flags.
If there's one thing Mr. Flacco can do, it's throw a football exceptionally far. (Like, wicked far.) And while those deep balls might occasionally land in the hands of a wide receiver, they just as often end up drawing penalty flags for pass interference.
The Ravens led the league in 2014, benefiting from 315 yards of free yardage on 15 pass interference penalties. That's four more drawn calls and 77 yards more than any other team. They drew one PI penalty last week for 32 yards, on a drive that ended with a Justin Tucker field goal. They also picked up 15 yards on a personal foul by Mike Mitchell on an incomplete deep ball to Jacoby Jones. Baltimore later cashed in with a touchdown on that drive.
At times, the "chuck it deep and hope for a flag" strategy seems to be the best play in the Baltimore playbook.
Obviously, giving up huge chunks of yards for free is not something the Patriots can afford to do, so it's vitally important for Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner, Kyle Arrington and Co. to be extra careful when dealing with Steve Smith and Torrey Smith up the sideline.
"It's a technique thing. If you play the technique properly then you're OK. If you don't play it properly, then it's going to be a foul," Bill Belichick said this week. "It's usually when the quarterback throws it. If you're chasing a guy down the field and the guy slows down, why is he slowing down? You're not that much faster than the other guy. Really, you have to see that space close and close quickly and then turn around and react to it."
As defenses prove every week, that's a lot easier said than done.
Welcome Gronkowski To The Party
For all of the Ravens' success against the Patriots, the one weapon they've never really had to contain has been a fully healthy Rob Gronkowski. And after missing damn near all of the Patriots' playoff fun the past two years, it's safe to assume that the hulking tight end is ready to party.
He is, after all, party.
Gronkowski last shared a field with the Ravens in the 2011 AFC Championship Game, but only briefly. He left that game after Bernard Pollard rolled up on his ankle.
Gronkowski did return to that game. He authored one of the greatest mic'd up segments in NFL history but was clearly not at full strength.
This time, with an added week of rest in Week 17, Gronkowski is set to break out of his cage and be the unstoppable player he can be. The Ravens will have the choice of either trying to cover Gronkowski in man coverage or devoting two or three bodies to try to lock him down. Choosing the former can be a death wish, and choosing the latter often leaves Tim Wright or Brandon LaFell wide open for six.
Just look at what happened to the poor Lions when they paid too much attention to Gronkowski:
Aside from a small handful of plays in January 2013, this will be Gronkowski's first playoff action in three calendar years. Look out.
Do They Dare Try The Ground Game?
Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil are two fellows who don't mind applying some heavy hits on one Mr. Tom Brady. In fact, Suggs makes no effort to hide his personal disdain for Brady, and Dumervil can brag that he is the NFL player who has hit Brady the hardest.
With that in mind, it's worth wondering how much the Patriots will try to establish a running game.
Considering the Patriots had just the 18th-ranked rushing offense, and considering the team's leading rusher is Jonas Gray at 412 yards (47th in the NFL!) ... and considering the Ravens ranked fourth in rush yards allowed and third in yards allowed per carry, it might not make a ton of sense for the Patriots to try to jam a square peg into a round hole.
Yet when the Patriots rely solely on the passing game while facing a ferocious pass rush, that's when things tend to go south. Quickly.
While running directly at Haloti Ngata may be a bad idea, and while handing off to Shane Vereen between the tackles may be even worse (seriously, Josh McDaniels, you need to stop doing that), there can still be ways to move the ball effectively enough to pick up some yards and open up the opportunity for play-action.
The Ravens' rush defense was similarly stout last year, allowing 3.8 yards per carry as compared to this year's 3.6 yards per carry, but the Patriots managed to find success on the ground. LeGarrette Blount picked up 76 yards on 16 carries, twice finding the end zone in a 41-7 blowout victory.
They're different teams now, of course, but Blount has touched the football just 20 times in the past month. He's well-rested, and he's proven to be a difficult bowling ball for defenses to slow down. He could quietly be the key to this entire game.
Will The Real Tom Brady Please Stand Up?
Let's be honest: We can parse this thing 16 ways from Sunday, but what we all want to know is what to expect from Thomas Edward Patrick Brady Jr.
There's no getting around the fact that he hasn't been able to create exceptional results in recent postseasons, but that's hardly all his fault. He was strip-sacked on New England's third play from scrimmage and was sacked on his very next dropback in the 2009 playoffs, kicking off a game that featured putrid effort up and down the Patriots roster (Julian Edelman excluded). He was good but not great in the 2010 loss to the Jets (23-for-42, 299 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, one dropped TD by Alge Crumpler). He threw six touchdowns against Denver in the 2011 postseason, but he threw two touchdowns and three picks in the two games that followed. Likewise, he lit up the Texans in 2012 (344 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INT, 115 passer rating) but looked lost against Baltimore in the AFC Championship Game without Gronkowski. And last year, he got nothing going in Denver, in part because he was throwing to Austin Collie and the Matthews Mulligan and Slater, and in part because Terrance Knighton ate the quarterback whole.
Excuses? Sure. But they're all rooted in real-life situations that didn't work out too well for Brady. Nevertheless, people only care about results, and with a 4-5 record since 2009, those results just haven't been there for Brady.
It may be unfair to place such high expectations on a quarterback when there are obviously a myriad of factors outside the QB's control that play into winning and losing. But that's the football world we live in. The quarterbacks get all the glory in wins, so it's only natural that they're going to get all the blame in losses.
For Brady, the once-crowned king of playoff football who could do no wrong, you know that he's desperate to do whatever it takes to once again hoist the Lombardi Trophy. The Patriots now have their best defense in a long time, and Brady has arguably his best chance to win since Feb. 3, 2008.
But to get all the way back on top, he'll have to show up and be at his best, beginning Saturday at 4:35 p.m.
Read more from Michael Hurley by clicking here, or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.
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