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And Then Winter Showed Up...

Winter started early in November, then took a long hiatus in December, and appears to be roaring back to life now. It was nice to get a break with milder temps and minimal icy travel for the holidays, but now we're set for the coldest air since last winter and perhaps in several years to move in. That's already being felt up on Mt. Washington where wind chill values dipped below -70F on Monday evening! Frequent wind gusts over 100mph, combined with frigid cold swinging in, are producing some rough times for the hardcore weather observers that work on the summit.

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We saw the temperature drop a solid 40º on Monday with daytime highs just after midnight (low 50s) turning into the cold we're walking out the door to today. That's cold shot #1, an appetizer if you will. And even this starting course is pretty chilly stuff - it'll deliver the coldest day since February 12th in southern New England today with highs staying in the 10s to low 20s for most. The good news today is there will be much less wind. The bad news is there will be more cloud cover and some areas of light snow. Not expecting much out of this Clipper as it loses gas (and moisture) heading out of the Ohio Valley. But we could see some coatings to an inch or so across the area. Being so cold, anything that falls will stick so be careful on the roads.

Tomorrow is when the real deal arctic front will move through with cold shot #2, and this one is going to hurt a bit. It'll bring the whole eastern U.S. its coldest air since that 'polar vortex' outbreak last winter, and for many it's the first time they've had to deal with real winter cold since that point. The majority of true cold air outbreaks this season have been in the Plains and Rockies regions.

Temperature Crash:

So what are we talking about here? Well the front should move through Wednesday afternoon, so we'll reach our 'highs' early in the day (20s). Once it passes the wind will really roar and make for an uncomfortable trip home from work or school. Temperatures will fall back into the 10s and then 0s during the evening, but wind gusts in the 35-50mph range will send wind chill values crashing below zero. With this strong cold air advection, temps aloft (around 850mb) may get as cold as -30C! On the ground, that means the majority of towns will go subzero at night. We're fortunate there isn't much snow cover anywhere...it would be even colder than we're expecting! I think many suburbs should fall in the 0º to -12ºF range, while it should stay just a bit above 0º for the Cape/Islands.

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Upgrade GFS projected temps at 850mb Wednesday night. That's some seriously cold air, and it should send the majority of New England subzero at the surface Wednesday night. Some areas of northern New England should be in the -15 to -25F range, plus a lot of wind producing life-threatening cold in those areas. Some higher elevations may not get above 0F on Thursday. Source: Weatherbell

Believe it or not, Boston rarely hits 0ºF. It's only happened twice in the past 10 years, reaching -2F in 2011 and also in 2005. Even in last winter when so many were worn down by cold, it only reached 2F (for three straight days in early January). This is due to a couple reasons - one being the Urban Heat Island Effect and the other being its waterside location. Boston's coldest nights are typically when there's an unusually strong cold air advection setup, when the value of the air itself makes up for the warming effects of the city environment. So that being said, I think we have a chance at hitting 0F early Thursday morning. If that happens it'll be the coldest temp recorded there in 4 years. Either way you slice it, that's some frigid air!

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One more note on the 'climate' side of this - nothing that we're expecting is near record levels for this time of year. The record lows for Thursday morning are listed below...and we should be several degrees above them.

Boston                  -6F (1878)

Worcester            -11F (1968)

Providence           -4F   (1968)

Windsor Locks    -7F (1968)

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Wind Chill Concerns:

Wind chill is what the air actually feels like on your skin, and it has a very technical formula that's used to find its value. Wednesday night and Thursday we'll reach the 'dangerous' zone with values dipping into the -20 to -30F range. In those kinds of conditions, you can succumb to frostbite in less than 30 minutes. We only get a few days per winter that reach this level (if at all) here in southern New England, so treat it with care. I know we all like to be 'tough New Englanders' but you want to make sure your pets are not outside for very long at all, have plenty of layers ready to go to cover all exposed skin, and keep a close eye on your car. Temps like this can keep more than a few from starting in the morning. Wind gusts will stay with us all day Thursday, and will pick up again on Friday as another disturbance heads toward us.

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Snow Squalls:

I'm also expecting there to be snow squall activity along this potent arctic front. These can be tricky and can have high impact, even if they only last for a short while. We may see bursts of snow around Wednesday afternoon, including into the evening commute. Be aware that if these materialize, there could be blinding, wind driven snow scattered around which will stick immediately due to the cold. Stay updated on the forecast and be sure to check a radar app or Twitter feed before heading out...don't want to get caught in one of these! The giant pile-up on 93 in New Hampshire last Friday is a good example of what can happen if you aren't careful.

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We'll also be keeping an eye on ocean-effect snow bands that should set up heading into Wednesday night and Thursday. Winds will be shifting around a bit, but with air this cold flowing over the water there should be some bands to track for the Cape and Islands, and possibly the South Shore for a time. We'll get a better handle on these by this evening and Wednesday AM, but am certainly expecting some areas of hyper-local wind driven snow to develop.

Cold Holding Tough...

As the next disturbance rolls toward us on Friday, winds should again pick up and warm us all the way into the 20s! Lucky us. Another round of snow showers/squalls will be possible, so again keep up with the forecast and make sure you won't be traveling into a mess trying to get out of town or toward ski country. We're not talking a large organized storm here, but I could see a few inches in spots if there's enough moisture. We'll keep an eye on it as the week progresses.

Another day stuck in the 20s to start the weekend means a chilly but dry Foxboro for the Patriots playoff game vs the Ravens. The outlook calls for temps in the mid 20s at kickoff and low 20s by the end of the game. Fortunately, there shouldn't be too much wind. But any breeze with those temps, especially toward the top of Gillette, is going to make it feel awfully cold.

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We *may* reach the freezing mark in some towns by Sunday, but I don't expect it to be widespread. That means most locations will be sub-freezing Monday afternoon all the way into next week! Not too comfortable, but I see at least 2 silver linings here. 1) Ponds will freeze up and finally allow people to get out on the ice safely 2) At least oil price are a whole lot lower than this time last year. It's winter so it's supposed to be cold...and we'll do what we always do - light a fire, bundle up, and try to enjoy it!

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