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Anomalous November Cold

You probably are aware of the unusually cold weather that has been expanding across the nation. Some of that chill charged into New England over the weekend and more is slated to make us shiver this week. The coldest morning of the season occurred yesterday with temperatures starting out in the upper teens to lower 20s in many of the suburbs. Expect some repeats of that as the week rolls on. In the meantime, we're dealing with an approaching frontal boundary today and that is generating mainly rain across the region this morning but a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain is occurring over some locations well north and west of Boston.

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The messy mix will not amount to more than an inch or so way out there as warmer air switches all of the precipitation to rain. The intensity of the rain across the region will be changeable through the day so plan on periods of light rain and mist ranging up to some downpours at times. Up to 1-2" rain is possible.

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The warm air will certainly rush into southeastern MA and in that warm sector, the wind will strengthen to 25-50 mph with some higher gusts. Temperatures will soar into the upper 50s to lower 60s but the question is the extent of the warm air penetration to the north of Boston. Presently, it appears that the warmth should push up through Boston to Cape Ann by early evening but it may not make it to the Merrimack Valley so lower to middle 40s there. With the passage of the cold frontal boundary near or after midnight tonight, the cold air will rush eastward toward the coast with clearing conditions and temperatures falling into the 30s by dawn. There could be some icy patches developing out west and spreading into the western suburbs.

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Temperatures will be running close to 15 degrees below average tomorrow and Wednesday. A few snow showers may occur Wednesday night then slightly milder air will be here on Thursday but another surge of cold air will push the highs back to the lower 30s on Friday and Saturday! After that, the pendulum will swing the other way and much warmer air may return late next weekend and the beginning of Thanksgiving week when some showery rains could occur. It is too premature to be confident but, at this time, it looks like some very wet weather may impact holiday travelers along the East Coast with storm-free and cooler weather on Thanksgiving.

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This funky map (credit: WeatherBELL) depicts the upper level steering currents at 500 mb. I am thinking that this setup will be a recurring pattern this upcoming winter. It suggests that the zone of colder to much colder than average weather will be positioned from the upper Mississippi Valley through the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley into the Northeast including New England. The subtropical jet stream will occasionally escort storms into CA and across the Southern States and up the East Coast. Blocking from the Davis Straits and Greenland westward in the arctic zone will favor above average snowfall here. I will post a much more detailed blog on the Winter Outlook during the Thanksgiving Weekend and the WBZ AccuWeather Team will elaborate during our Eye On Weather: Winter Special at 7:30pm on Saturday November 29.

You can watch the weathercasts by Danielle Niles through 9 o'clock this morning and at noon with Eric Fisher following on WBZ News starting at 5pm today. Make it a great week!

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