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Colder Air Arrives, Snowflakes On The Way!

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rtma

By Wednesday evening, the only warm spots left where the SE Atlantic Coast and the desert southwest. By Friday, all gone! Source: Weatherbell

We've been watching it creep across the country for the past several days, and now the cooler air has finally put an end to some mild autumn weather here at home. We're all waking up to a crisp and chilly air mass and you'll get reacquainted with your winter wardrobe for the foreseeable future. Today is a nice day to transition into the colder weather as the truly chilly stuff won't really take hold until the weekend. Highs in the mid/upper 40s today are a good 15º colder than yesterday, but still in the 'seasonal' category for mid-November.

The heart of the cold, as expected, has really locked in across the northern Plains and Rockies. Casper, WY hit a remarkable -25F Wednesday morning, which was the coldest temperature ever recorded in the month of November there! In fact, it crushed the old record of -21F. Very impressive cold, and Denver was also busy breaking a number or record lows and 'low maxes' over the past two days. On the snowy front, over 40" fell in parts of Upper Michigan; while St. Cloud, Minnesota saw its biggest 24-storm in November history (13.5"). Needless to say, this isn't just another cold air outbreak in late fall.

Snowflakes Are Coming....

When we do we get into some 'real deal' cold? After some snowflakes, of course! A weak area of low pressure will form tonight off to our south, and then quickly head up the coast. This is no powerhouse storm, however it should be enough to bring an area of snow late tonight (starting after 9p) and into Friday morning. Temperature profiles look good for snow just about everywhere but Cape Cod and the Islands. It may be more of a cold rain event there, ending as some wet snow that won't accumulate to much of anything.

snowtotals

Roads should stay in O.K. shape as recent mild weather and Friday morning commuters will help keep snow from sticking.

There's reason to keep an eye on the weather even though it's not a big event. Overnight snow will set up a wintry scene for your Friday morning eyes, and just having flakes in the air can slow down an already crawling commute. Seems like it doesn't take much around here! Air temps are expected to be in the 31-36º range, and we're coming off a warm stretch of weather. That means most traveled roads shouldn't have any significant issues with accumulating snow. Most of it should melt. So when you look at the accumulation map, keep in mind that most of it will stick to grass, trees, and untraveled surfaces.

Stay tuned for any updates in case we need to tweak these numbers at all today. But I think the bottom line is you should expect a snowy look to the area Friday morning and a slow commute to take it all in. Any snow/rain should pivot offshore by late morning, with clearing skies in the afternoon. The combination of cold air pouring in behind it and snow on the ground should help keep highs close to 40º.

December is the only way to describe this upcoming weekend. Overnight lows both Saturday morning and Sunday morning should be in the low/mid 20s, giving Boston its first subfreezing temp of the season (it will have come about a week late vs average). Saturday will be nice and bright and without too much wind, so the chill should be pretty tolerable if you're bundled up! On Sunday cloudiness will start to increase, and there may even be a flurry or two around toward evening. Otherwise just a quiet and cold pair of days to hang out by the fire, cook some good eats, and watch the Patriots Sunday night!

mondaytuesday

The next storm in the hopper is for Monday into Monday night. The trend on this one has been warmer, more wet than white. The ECMWF has a track dramatically farther to the west than other models, bringing in a flood of milder air along with the storm. I'm leaning away from this right now, and am favoring a track a little closer to the coast. Even still, we're missing a big ingredient for snow lovers. Number one is a cold high pressure center over eastern Canada. Without it, milder Atlantic air will flow right on it and pretty much guarantee rain anywhere near the coast.

That being said, the air in place before the storm will be very cold, and interior parts of the Northeast may get a decent snowfall out of this. Right now it looks like those chances are more toward Vermont and New York, but there's plenty of time to watch this one develop.

trough

Behind it, even colder air! Next week's plunge looks even more impressive than this week's, especially from the perspective of the Midwest and Northeast. A polar air mass should keep highs in the 30s Tuesday and Wednesday, possibly even below freezing for interior parts of the Northeast. That's a pretty brutal arctic plunge for mid-November. Any annual plants that have held on to this point should finally meet there end over the next week, and I'm sure some of those brave leaves that have been holding on will start to give up the fight as well.

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