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Hurley's Picks: Brady's Pats Will Beat Manning's Broncos, While Jets Are Set To Rise From Ashes

BOSTON (CBS) -- I'm teetering.

I'm teetering bad.

Real bad.

I wouldn't say I'm in a full-on panic, because overall, my body of work over eight weeks still stands up as pretty good. But the last two weeks have been rough. I'm 11-18-1 in the past two weeks, bringing my overall record down to 69-51-1. There's some wiggle room left over, but I'm really cutting it close.

If I were a football team, this would be the perfect time for a bye week to come in and allow me to refresh my brain, clear my conscience, take 10 days off and come back rested and ready to embark on the second half of the season. But unfortunately for me, I'm not a football team. I'm just an idiot with a keyboard.

And so I will trudge on, going back to my mantra from last week -- Trust The Process -- and politely asking the football gods to be a touch kinder this weekend. My pride is on the line, fellas.

And to make up for last week's lack of Ridiculous Quotes From Last Week, I have plenty to choose from this week.

(Home team in caps; Wednesday lines)

CAROLINA (+3) over New Orleans
Oh boy, starting this week with a tough one that's already got my mind in pretzels, are we?

The NFC South is very quietly the most putrid division in football. No teams have a winning record. Only New Orleans (+11) has a positive scoring differential. Carolina is 3-4-1, and New Orleans is 3-4, and the division appears to be on the path toward "Our Champion Is 8-8!" territory.

And for as badly as Drew Brees and the Saints proved me wrong last week (as you'll see in the upcoming RQFLWP), I still hate the Saints outside of the dome, and I hate the Saints on real grass, so I'll just close my eyes, pick Carolina and hope I don't have to watch much NFC South the rest of the way. (Just kidding, I will watch every game. I really ought to see somebody.)

Ridiculous Quote From Last Week's Picks: "Look, we all reach a point in the season where we have to accept certain things, and one of those things this year is that the Saints aren't the Saints. Same quarterback, yes, but not the same team we've come to know over the past five or so years."

Note: Drew Brees threw for about 3,000 yards and 100 touchdowns at home on national TV, which is what he always does. In true New Orleans style, play me some swanky fail horns!

Washington (+1) over MINNESOTA
Quarterback situation be damned, I was impressed enough with Washington's defense on Monday night that I'm willing to just lose my mind and take them on the road in a short week. If you handicap which of my picks are most likely to end up on my RQFLWP, you'd have to take this one off the board.

RQFLWP: "The worst part about the Cowboys playing so well is that you just know they're overdue for a giant, embarrassing belly flop. ... But Colt McCoy, on the road, national TV? Nah, can't be this week. Can't be. Right?!"

Note: I've learned to never doubt Colt McCoy when he's taking snaps in the state of Texas.

New York Jets (+10) over KANSAS CITY
"Michael Hurley has lost his damn mind," you might say. And you may be right. But hear me out.

I fully recognize that the Jets' situation is as bad as can be. John Idzik's press conference on Monday was one of the most humiliating sideshows I've ever seen from a professional sports organization. They don't have a quarterback, they're the laughingstock of the league -- look, I know!

But every organizational failure hits a rock bottom at some point, and from that rock bottom, the only way to go is up. And a halfway-decent performance against an Andy Reid-coached and Alex Smith-quarterbacked team is not the most insane idea in the world.

I'm not crazy. I swear it. Wait ... who are you and where are you taking me and I don't want to go into that van...

RQFLWP: "Anyone who pretends to know what will happen in this [Bills-Jets] game is a phony and a fraud."

Note: This was flat-out wrong. There were millions of people who could have said, "Geno Smith is going to play like a human fart in this game," and they would have been 100 percent correct.

DALLAS (-4) over Arizona
I want to believe the Cardinals are legit, but they've had exactly one difficult road game to deal with thus far, and in that one game, they got steamrolled 41-20 in Denver. So I'll believe it when I see it. Arizona has a bad offense (25th in NFL) and a terrible passing defense (dead last in the NFL), and that's just a dangerous combination when you're going into Big D. (All of this, of course, provided Tony Romo plays. If it's The Brandon Weeden Show, bet your house and first-born on Arizona. Let's not go too crazy, folks.)

UPDATE: According to reports on Sunday morning, Romo will not play. So Arizona giving a point it is.

CINCNNATI (-11) over Jacksonville
Tampa Bay (+7) over CLEVELAND
These are the worst games of the week and arguably the worst games of the entire season. So they get grouped together, and I'll just say that I have two tenets at play here:

1. Never take Cleveland to cover a touchdown.
2. Never take Jacksonville.

I followed No. 1 last week and got burned, but Cleveland was playing Oakland and was able to win by 10. I think Tampa Bay is good enough to close that three-point gap.

And No. 2, well, let's be honest. That's a 1-7 Jaguars team that is 2-6 against the spread. And their lone win came against the Browns, so does it even count? You see where I'm going with this. Never take Jacksonville. You'll be right 13 out of 16 times.

RQFLWP: " I believe the Cleveland Fun Time Express finally ran out of coal last weekend. Conversely, the Maybe-Win-Once Train has to leave the station at some point for Oakland."

Note: Nope. Just ... nope.

Philadelphia (-2) over HOUSTON
I love to look all around for little bits of information as much as I can, and sometimes I just laugh at what some of this "info" is. Covers.com is certainly a useful site for me, but I chuckled upon seeing these two lines:

"Eagles are 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game."

"Texans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game."

The two criteria are of course the most random option available, but that's also a pretty healthy sample size. I guess if the Texans are leading in the fourth quarter and they have 149 rushing yards, they'd be best suited to eliminate the running game from their offense if they hope to have a chance the following week.

Anyway, the two points at home are tempting, but, well, not that tempting.

RQFLWP: "[Zach Mettenberger] actually looks like his name is J.J. Watt Bait. I almost feel bad for him."

Note: Only two sacks for J.J.?! I expected at least a baker's dozen. I did like Watt's comment about Mettenberger, saying "This is the NFL, not high school." That's pretty funny. But my man, Justin James, dude ...

San Diego (+1.5) over MIAMI
I'm feeling frisky with this one. It goes against a few facts, such as the undeniable reality that the Chargers have been a lousy road team this year. They're 2-2 on the road, with one of those wins coming in the form of a measly three-point victory in Oakland (counts as a loss in my book).

But the Dolphins are 0-1 this season when they've been favored at home, and the Chargers are 2-1 and road dogs. The Dolphins will be able to run the ball and win the "battle" for time of possession, but the Chargers have the capability to win the actual battle that matters on the scoreboard.

RQFLWP: "SD +9 [vs. Denver]. That line's too big for a short week, COME ON PEOPLE."

Note: Peyton Manning has been in the NFL for about 55 years. You could give him 5 seconds to prepare for his next game and he'd still probably complete 85 percent of his passes and throw 4 TDs. This was a gross misestimation on my part.

SAN FRANCISCO (-10) over St. Louis
Oakland (+15.5) over SEATTLE
These games are up against New England-Denver, and even die-hard fans of the teams involved might prefer watching the Brady-Manning duel over these sad displays.

The worst part of them is that they're not even easy picks. The Rams have proven capable of randomly putting together a football game -- like, say, beating the defending champs -- only to follow it up with a stink bomb -- like, say, losing 34-7 at Kansas City. But the Niners easily handled the Rams a few weeks ago in St. Louis, and they should be able to handle their business against a lesser team that ranks 31st in points allowed.

And then you have the Raiders. Oh, Oakland Raiders. You poor things. You are 0-7, which is bad, but you've kept the score within 16 points on six of those occasions! Good for YOU! Do you think you can do that one more time for me? I mean, the Seahawks have bled a little bit this year. I think if you try really hard, you might even be able to score a touchdown against them. What do you say, Raiders? Can you score for me one time?

NEW ENGLAND (+3) over Denver
I think the Broncos are a better football team than the Patriots, but I'm going with New England. There are just too many factors I can't ignore -- factors I've ignored in the past, only to ultimately get burned.

For one, the Patriots are almost never home underdogs. When they are, they win -- or as was the case earlier this season against the Bengals, they freaking roll. (I picked Cincinnati that night). The Patriots' previous time as home dogs? That'd be last year against these same Broncos. The Patriots won in overtime. (I picked Denver.) Prior to that, the Patriots hadn't been home underdogs since 2005. That's nine years of dominance at home. That's significant.

Secondly, there's the threat of weather. It's going to be cold and windy, and hell, because Mother Nature is a good sport, it might even be snowy. If Peyton Manning were to give you a list of things he hates dealing with, it would be:

1. Wind
2. Cold
3. Scoreboard operators who want the fans to have fun at football games
4. Fans who cheer during games
5. Snow

Well, he might be dealing with all five of those conditions this Sunday, and that doesn't bode well for him. Last year, it was super windy at Gillette, and Manning flat-out could not throw the ball when the Broncos drove toward the open end of the stadium. That's why Bill Belichick took the wind and not the ball in overtime. And if it's notable enough for Bill Belichick, it's notable enough for me.

The Broncos are probably better as a whole and will probably get back to the Super Bowl. But the Patriots are going to win outright this weekend.

Baltimore (Pick 'Em) over PITTSBURGH
What in the world was that from Ben Roethlisberger last weekend? I mean, really, what was that?!

It's an aberration, if you ask me, and it's not happening again.

The Ravens are danged good this year, boasting the NFL's best point differential at +86. Prior to last weekend, the Ravens had lost twice this season, and they responded with a 20-point drubbing of these Steelers and a 31-point win over the Buccaneers. Roethlisberger threw for 217 yards, zero touchdowns and an interception in that loss to Baltimore, and I expect this week's stats to be much closer to that than whatever witchcraft he used last week.

RQFLWP: "The Colts, on a roll of five straight wins in which their average margin of victory is eight points, are simply functioning at a very high level right now. The Steelers are not equipped to get in the way."

Note: My dear God. It's been four days and Ben Roethlisberger is STILL throwing touchdowns against the Colts. I'm sorry for what I said, Ben! I'm sorry!

Indianapolis (-3) over NEW YORK GIANTS
Colts: Good. (OK, they weren't good last week, but they were 5-0 against the spread heading into it, so I'll write it off as "weird stuff in "Pittsburgh.")

Giants: Bad.

Me: Hopefully feeling much, much better after falling asleep at halftime of this Monday night game, with the Colts comfortably leading by 17 points.

Last week: 6-9
Season: 69-51-1

Read more from Michael Hurley by clicking here, or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.

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