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Summer to Snow? Only In New England

When you're topping 80 degrees in mid-October, you're on borrowed time.

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highs

Wednesday's highs across the area. Even Burlington, VT hit 80º! Record for the date in Boston was 86º, so still quite a bit shy of what's possible in mid-October.

It's been a treat this week and some records highs have been set in places like Portland, ME and Burlington, VT as temps have been reminiscent of summertime. Mild air is here for a couple more days, but then the bottom falls out as some of the coldest air of the season gets ready to pour in.

Today's Rain - A Soaker

The storm system that's been crawling across the country this week is finally moving in. While it was potent enough to spawn over 2 dozen tornadoes across the South, we're not expecting a big severe weather event here. The primary concerns are for sct'd downpours with low visibility and bouts of spotty flash flooding on roads. There may be enough instability to get us a few lightning strikes and rumbles of thunder - as well as some strong wind gusts that could in isolated spots reach 50mph. That's largely dependent on whether or not some stronger winds aloft can be brought down to the surface. Otherwise, we're just talking about a gusty day out of the south-southeast.

Rain showers will be in place for western and central Mass, as well as southwestern NH, by the morning. This band of rain will move very slowly eastward, with rain chances increasing as the day wears on. By the afternoon, showers and downpours will be moving into the Boston Metro. Overall the heaviest rain is expected from lunchtime through the evening (the last area to get in on the action Cape, South Coast, & Islands). Since this band will be moving slowly and we've got a lot of moisture to work with, most towns should see a solid 1-2" soaking. Isolated totals of 3-4" are possible.

Water Vapor Loop - Watching to see if tropical connection can be established by Thursday night from Gonzalo to our East Coast storm.

Those higher end totals have a lot to do with how much of Gonzalo's tropical moisture gets entrained into the front. If it happens, it'll be at the very tail end of the rain here in Massachusetts and may wrap torrential rainfall into the Cape/Nantucket and perhaps even South Shore/Boston in the evening. Since it's been such a dry stretch, I'm not expecting any major flood issues except for the nuisance variety on area roads.

pats

 

For the Patriots - it's a close call. Models have wavered on the exact timing of the heaviest rain in the Foxboro area. It appears that it'll be pouring buckets at times leading up to game time and perhaps into the start. But they may taper off as the game wears on with drier conditions taking control by the end. Overall the trend has been for the rain to come in and leave quicker by several hours...but bring the poncho regardless! Should be a tropical environment with high humidity and a very wet field. All of this wraps up before commute time on Friday morning.

Transition Time - Friday & Saturday

With the rain moving out by Friday morning, we're looking at a comfortable day to end out the week. With a mix of sun and clouds, plus dropping humidity, it should be a pretty good one to head outdoors and kick off the weekend right. We'll have a good breeze coming out of the west, and temperatures are still looking very mild. I think most should make it into the low 70s for highs...still a solid 10º above average for the date.

Saturday starts out on a good note - but changes are a brewin'. By the afternoon winds should start getting gustier, and clouds will fill in from NW to SE along with it (not expecting as much cloud cover over SE Mass). There may also be a few showers that try to get going, especially across southern New Hampshire and northern Massachusetts. These showers mark a big change in our weather, as gusty west-northwest winds will open the floodgates to the coldest air of the season. Saturday evening looks gusty - which may throw a wrench in the Keene Pumpkin Festival. Not easy to keep all those jack-o-lanterns lit...especially when they're on high scaffolding!

HOCR

 

Bottom Drops Out - Here Comes The Cold

By Sunday, temps will be plummeting aloft. 850mb temps should bottom out around -5ºC, which means we are in for one chilly day. As it looks now, I think some towns in northern MA/southern NH will stay in the 40s for highs. The 40s! Can't ask for a bigger 180 compared to what we've seen recently. Most of the Boston area and Cape will see low 50s, but that's it. A west-northwest wind that may be gusting 30-40mph isn't going to help matters. So plan on a cozy day with a fire going in the fireplace and some guilt-free football watching!

sunday

GFS forecast HIGHS for Sunday. Big cold blast for the Northeast as Gonzalo departs in the Atlantic and a big trough dives into our area. Source: Weatherbell

In fact it should be so cold out across northern New England that I'm fully expecting snowflakes to fly on Sunday. The higher terrain should see snow showers, with the highest mountains possibly even seeing some accumulating snow (an inch or so)! The signal is also there for some lake-effect rain/snow showers for New York and Pennsylvania. Tis the season for snow maps!

snowfallsunday

GFS forecast snowfall through Sunday. I'm sure the 'Jay Cloud' at Jay Peak in the NEK will be producing flakes and great photos on Sunday.

 

Next Week: Trouble Brewing?

Several models continue to hint at a setup that spells chilly and perhaps stormy weather for us next week. If you haven't been enjoying this warm spell, you're definitely in luck with the longer range forecast. I'm not seeing much warmth at all after Saturday. The combination of a digging Northeast trough, a coastal low trying to spin up near our coastline, and a strong high over southeastern Canada has a Nor'easter look to it. Time will tell how strong any potential coastal storm may become, but we're keeping an eye on the Tuesday-Thursday time frame. This setup could deliver very chilly temps, a good shot of rain, and some strong onshore winds. Stay tuned for some updates on this one as we get closer.

midweek

Possible setup next week as a stiff onshore flow develops and storminess threatens the Northeast coast.

 

 

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