Four Bold Bruins Predictions For 2014-15 Season
BOSTON (CBS) -- Perhaps it was the unseasonably warm month of September, or maybe it was the seemingly brief preseason, or maybe the Patriots have simply provided enough of a distraction, but it sure seems like hockey season has crept up on the sports scene in Boston this fall.
Nevertheless, the puck drops tonight on the 2014-15 season, and though the trade of Johnny Boychuk last weekend certainly put a damper of sorts on the excitement level, it's a safe bet that the TD Garden will be roaring when the B's and Flyers get the season underway.
Last year around this time, yours truly spent some time making some bold predictions about the Bruins. It was a rousing success, in the sense that it was an unmitigated disaster. Here's a brief recap of those brave prognostications:
1. B's Will Finish In The Top Three In Goals Scored
Result: Correct.
The Bruins finished third in the NHL -- first in the Eastern Conference -- with 3.15 goals per game. They were just .06 goals per game shy of league leader Anaheim.
2. Tuukka Rask Will Finish Just Outside Of Vezina Consideration
Result: Incorrect. Terribly Incorrect.
Tuukka Rask was the best goalie in the NHL. He was not only a finalist for the Vezina Trophy, but he won it running away.
3. Loui Eriksson Will Lead The Team In Scoring
Result: Incorrect. Again, Terribly, Wildly Incorrect
In part because he suffered two concussions, Eriksson scored just 10 goals and had 27 assists.Those 37 points ranked him 10th on the team in scoring.
4. The Bruins Won't Win The Stanley Cup
Result: Correct
This was correct, though it's hardly a bold prediction.
So the end result was 2-out-4, 50 percent, which is what I received on most tests I've taken in my life. But I'm going to try to do better this year. Let's get right to it.
Four Bold Bruins Predictions For 2014-15
1. The Bruins Will Not Finish In The Top Three In Goals Against
Nothing is more crucial to the identity of a Claude Julien-led team than keeping the puck out of the net, and with arguably the best goaltender (Rask), defenseman (Zdeno Chara) and defensive forward (Patrice Bergeron) in place, the Bruins will once again be a strong defensive team.
Yet the loss of Johnny Boychuk is not an insignificant one, as he ate up 21 heavy minutes per night -- second-most on the team, behind only Chara. With Dennis Seidenberg gone for the second half of the year, Boychuk stepped into a new role as the second-best defenseman on the Bruins. They'd finish the year allowing just 2.08 goals per game, second-fewest in the NHL, en route to winning the Presidents' Trophy.
To be sure, the Bruins aren't ruined by any stretch, but they'll be counting on the recovering Seidenberg, the mistake-prone Matt Bartkowski, the still-young Dougie Hamilton and the at-times overmatched Torey Krug. Add in that the forward lines enter the season in a state of flux, and the Bruins are set to take an ever-so-slight dip in puck possession. It may not lead to too many more losses, but it's likely to drop them out of the NHL's very elite class of defensive teams.
2. Reilly Smith Will Lead The Bruins In Scoring
Take two ... let's try this again, and let's pick the guy who took Loui Eriksson's spot on Bergeron's wing and never gave it up.
Smith went on an incredible hot streak last season after joining Bergeron's line, netting 13 goals and 12 assists in 28 games in November and December. Production slowed for him a bit throughout the rest of the year, but it shouldn't be forgotten that it was his first full season in the NHL.
Still just 23 years old, Smith enters the season with twice as much NHL experience under his belt than he had last year, and he's spent that time working and developing chemistry with Bergeron and Brad Marchand.
(And frankly, if you're picking a points leader, your best bet is to pick someone who plays next to No. 37. You might also look at who's playing for a big contract. With Smith, you get both.)
3. Spooner-Mania Will Be Short-Lived
There's been a lot of love for Ryan Spooner this summer. I don't believe it's going to last throughout the winter.
After initially getting sent down to Providence last week, Spooner returned to the NHL club over the weekend and scored two goals against the Islanders. On Tuesday, he officially made the club, meaning he'll be starting the season in Boston.
There's plenty of upside in Spooner's game. He's just 22 years old, and he picked up 11 assists in his 23 NHL games last year. He had 46 points in 49 games with Providence last season, one year after producing 57 points in 59 AHL games. He's a good player, and he likely will be a valuable NHL contributor at some point in his career.
But that time is not now. The head coach has expressed his concerns about Spooner's defensive effort, and Claude's doghouse is a tough place to break out of.
4. The Bruins' Power Play Will Remain In The NHL's Top Five
In the middle of the 2010-11 season, the Bruins lost playmaker and assist wizard Marc Savard. Considering Savard scored 42 goals and assisted on 98 more on the power play in his first 279 games with Boston, it's not difficult to understand why the power-play production plummeted after Savard was injured. Here's how the Bruins have ranked on the power play since losing Savard:
2011: 20th, 16.2%
2012: 15th, 17.2%
2013: 26th, 14.8%
2014: 3rd, 21.7%
Obviously, one of these things is not like the other, as the Bruins completely revamped their power play last year and found great success. Now with coach Geoff Ward and Jarome Iginla (four power-play goals, 10 power-play assists) out of the picture, it's a question whether the team will be able to replicate that success or whether it will revert back to the leaner years that preceded it.
The key pieces -- Torey Krug's missile, Zdeno Chara's net-front presence, David Krejci's vision on the blue line, Patrice Bergeron's steady excellence -- remain in place, and it's not unreasonable to expect Dougie Hamilton, Carl Soderberg and/or Brad Marchand to increase their impact on the power-play unit.
A key player and coach are gone but the power-play unit has a strong enough foundation, built last year, to maintain its success.
Read more from Michael Hurley by clicking here, or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.
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