Foliage Or Beach? Tough Decisions This Weekend
Is it just me, or has almost every weekend since the start of June been epic?
Well I did some digging and was surprised to find that it's rained 25% of weekend days since the start of June in Boston. Maybe it's just perception...but I would have thought that number would be much lower. Seems like every time Saturday comes around, the sun is blazing. I guess it's more the duration/amount that matters more than the actual number of days that saw rain...and to that end we've only picked up 1.79" on all 9 of those days *combined*. Not exactly a deluge. And I can remember from memory that at least 0.35" of that fell at night (the 5th of July has Arthur was heading out to sea). The end game of all that unnecessary number manipulation is that I do indeed think most of our weekend days have been just fine, and I probably could have found a better use for those 15 minutes.
No change to the trend this weekend, and you're going to have a tough choice. Hike around the hills of New England and check out some peaking foliage while breathing fresh air and enjoying nature, or dig your beach chair back out of the crawl space and head to the shore for sand and waves. Boy is life tough for us around here. Both options are very much viable for Saturday AND Sunday, and we could possibly even set some record highs around the region.
The Setup
Certainly wasn't the widespread rainfall of our dreams Thursday/Thursday night, but at least some beneficial rain fell for the South Coast, Cape and Islands. Over an inch for some, with the highest totals on Nantucket! At least a few lawns will be able to drink up, and this is the part of the state that needed it most. The system responsible is starting to swirl away this morning, and will gradually take its cloud cover along with it. Sunshine will creep farther southeast as the day goes on, eventually clearing the Cape & Islands as we head past lunch. High pressure takes control by the evening.
The weekend will be dominated by a large ridge in the jet stream. Ridges aren't just great for chips, they're pretty solid for warm and dry conditions. For most of the area that's still bone dry, the sun will go straight to work heating the ground (and subsequently the air) quickly. The ridge will protect us from all storminess and essentially all cloud cover for the duration of the weekend. Only chance at seeing some cloudiness is during the mornings when valley/coastal fog could be around to start the days.
The Numbers
Highs on Friday will be warmest inland where the sun goes to work first and the NNE wind direction won't directly impact the temps. Expect low to mid 70s there, a fantastic TGIF. The wind trajectory off the water, combined with some early clouds, will keep coastal areas cooler. Highs from Cape Ann to Boston and farther down to the Cape & Islands should only max out in the mid/upper 60s.
On Saturday the air aloft will become very warm for late September, around +16C at 850mb. So inland highs will peak up near 80, a feel of summer returning. The ocean is already cooling down (many SST reports are in the 50s) and so this temperature gradient should get sea breezes going by midday. It'll feel warmest by the water during the morning with temps maxing in the low 70s before the onshore wind cools things down for the afternoon hours.
More of the same on Sunday, although the offshore wind component should be a little stronger. This should get temps up into the 80s inland, with 70s on the Cape/Islands. That *may* be just enough to set some record highs. Below you can see the current records for several climate sites. Concord, NH and Windsor Locks, CT have the best shot at posting a new top number. Either way you slice it, the final weekend of September is going to feel a lot more like summer than fall.
Added Incentive To Head Out On Saturday
Perfectly timed with peaking foliage across the higher elevations and an aces forecast - Saturday is 'National Public Lands Day.' What does that mean? It means you can take advantage of some gorgeous protected land for free! There are always several 'fee-free' days, when parks, refuges and rangelands offer free entry or waive the standard amenity fee for visitors. So you can enjoy the outdoors and save a few bucks in the process. It's also a good opportunity to volunteer to help keep these resources a great place for everyone to visit. For more information, check out this website.
White Mountain National Forest in New Hampshire
Notables For The Home Stretch of September
Seems like a lot of people have been talking about how 'cool' it is. No one believes me when I tell them it's just because recent years have been so abnormally warm, but typically no one believes it. Life as a meteorologist. In any case, the month of September is no doubt going down as an above average month for temperature. It's sitting just a bit above average now, but the stretch Saturday through Monday, with temps generally running 9-15º above average, will easily boost that figure. The scorching start and warm end outweigh the cool days mixed in throughout the middle.
Dry conditions will also continue to be a story unless there's a pattern flip on the not-too-distant horizon. 'Moderate drought' was introduced for parts of southeastern MA, RI and CT on the most recent 'Drought Monitor' update from the USDA (new data is released every Thursday morning). This is the first time we've had 'moderate drought' in the state since January. The good news is some towns received a significant rain last night. But the deficits in this area are 6-12" over the past six months, and a few more widespread soakings wouldn't hurt.
