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It's A Start, But Not Enough

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Good news first: Some rain is going to fall from the sky. Bad news second: Not enough, and not widespread. Beggars can't be choosers but this approaching storm system today is not going to take the most desirable path to quench the thirsty New England ground. I've written about it in previous blogs, but Boston is on pace for the driest September in 57 years if we can't squeeze much out of this one. Other parts of the state, especially the SE corner, have been even worse since early July. What we want is a loooooong day of steady rain. The kind where you just want to sit in a cozy spot with a warm drink and take a nap. Hopefully soon, but not today.

Timing:

Expecting a dry morning commute, with perhaps some drizzle or light showers reaching the Islands or South Coast by mid/late morning. Otherwise, rain should not be an issue across the area. In fact, there may still be some decent sun - or at least bright skies - for far northern MA and New Hampshire. So overall no major issues out the door. As the morning wears on, the areas of rain/showers will slowly try to press into our parched state. By early afternoon most should see wet/damp weather south of the Pike. The evening looks to be the wettest time of the day and could slow the PM drive for the southern half of Massachusetts.

thursday

Showers and a few downpours will continue Thursday night into Friday morning. Gradually on Friday the system will slide east, and so we'll see improving conditions as the day goes on. The brightest/warmest part of the area will be VT/NH/WMass. Clouds and some areas of showers will be more persistent for the Cape, Islands, and South Shore. By the late afternoon everyone should be in brighter skies but the late arrival of sun will keep the SE corner of the state in the mid 60s for high temps.

 

Who Gets In On The Rain:

Sometimes, it's more important to forecast the 'high' than the 'low.' You're familiar with those symbols on a weather map. Well the high pressure that's starting to depart New England is a particularly strong one. Up on Mt. Washington, they saw their 8th highest pressure in 80+ years of records yesterday! This high is stopping the northward path of the storm, and also funneling in some drier air from the E/NE. At the moment it's looking like there will be a sharp cutoff between the 'haves' and 'have nots.' This is the type of system that would give us migraines in the winter.

totals

The South Coast, Cape and Islands have the highest probability of seeing a decent rainfall. That's good news, because it's also the driest part of the region. Areas farther north are more in question. I think *some* rain is going to get up into the Boston area, but that may be about it. Anything north of the Pike may be very sporadic in nature and not amount to much. There's a good chance anyone north of Route 2 will barely see a drop at all. So this isn't an equal opportunity storm. Would have been nice to see this thing fly right up the coast!

A solid rain wouldn't just be good for dry conditions, but for the ragweed and other assorted fall allergens as well. Most towns have yet to see a frost, and many haven't seen any rain in at least a couple of weeks. The dry fall pattern, albeit beautiful weather to be outdoors in, allows those allergy counts to keep on rising. Bottom line is we're hoping for an overachiever here...although I'd be surprised if that happened.

Rough Surf Ahead:

Onshore winds picked up on Wednesday, and will stay generally out of the east today. The long duration of onshore wind should help build swell from the east and eventually kick up some pretty rough surf. Seas 5-7' look like a pretty solid bet, and winds will gust over 20 knots Thursday into Friday morning. Good news is that astronomical tides are fairly low. I'd expect the high tide that's around 1am on Friday morning (in the Boston area) to be the highest, with only minor issues. But definitely some choppy seas to deal with if you're heading out fishing.

Geeky Stuff:

There's not a lot to really like about this setup. There's a modest mid-level jet streak that's going to nose up into the South Coast late Thursday, and should provide at least a little instability. The area where we could really go to town and squeeze out some moisture is limited though. Precipitable water values decrease rapidly from south to north, so there shouldn't be much to work with north of the Pike. There won't really be a baroclinic zone to work off of either (think clash of temperatures). And overall I just don't like to see a strong dry high camped out nearby. We'll see if somehow the storm can come through, but I'd lean closer to the 'drier' side than the 'wetter' side.

pwat

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