Upcoming Weather: Good For Lawns, Bad For Tans
Programming note: We’ll be heading out around New England for ‘Beach Week’ at the end of June. You control where we drive the Mobile Accuweather Lab – just tell us where your favorite place is to soak up some sun and listen to waves crash, and why it’s special to you. We’ll be visiting the top spots and doing the weather live from our coast all week, so long as severe weather doesn’t rear its ugly head.
“Zonal” or “Progressive” are not two words that are likely to be matched up with recent weather across the U.S. We’ve had a lot of persistent features, a lot of big kinks in the jet stream, and a lot of storms that have been in no particular hurry to go anywhere. A number of these have set up shop across the central/southeastern U.S. – so we haven’t had to deal with a deluge. But the ‘persistent’ part of our weather has been in the form of an onshore flow. If we had a drinking game where you threw down every time a Meteorologist said ‘back door cold front’ we’d all be three sheets to the east wind. Guess what? Another day of onshore winds today!
Here’s the setup. We’ve got an area of low pressure meandering around the Great Lakes and making a move to the NNE. Nearly the entire East Coast is mired in unsettled, wet, and increasingly humid weather as this system gets strung over over a long N-S distance. After a cool day yesterday, the mugginess will start to return to the air today as the wind veers a little more southeasterly and dew points rise toward 60. Not oppressive by any stretch, but noticeable. Not a whole lot of forcing in the atmosphere today as the warm front stays off to our southwest. Expecting a lot of clouds, a few showers from time to time (especially in the morning and then again in the afternoon) and cool-ish temperatures in the 60s to near 70. We’ll have to keep a close eye on things during the afternoon as a few heavier downpours may develop, but I’m thinking the highest chance for that to happen will be WMass.
GFS precipitable water forecast for Friday in the Northeast. Plenty of tropical moisture to work with, just need a trigger. Source: WeatherBell
On Friday – the squeeze play. A cold front will be oozing eastward and approaching New England, while a warm front stubbornly advances to the east. The area between the two should be very tight, so it’s a bit of a tough call when it comes to temperatures. The overall trend has been for a pretty sloppy and swampy day, with dew points in the 60s (humid), highs in the low/mid 70s, a lot of clouds, and a rain risk throughout the day and night. There’s no real direct forcing at one particular time to nail down when rain will fall, but the atmosphere will be juiced up. PWATs (precipitable water) are expected to be +3 2Ds above normal, around 2″. So any showers or storms that can get going could be prodigious rain makers on a local scale. This will be the main threat for Friday, especially in the afternoon/evening. Areas of locally heavy rain could cause some street flooding, nasty travel conditions, etc. CAPE values look marginal, so unless we can break out some significant sunshine I’d think severe weather will be unlikely.
As I write this, there are still some significant timing differences to start the weekend. The GFS has been sending this front through earlier in the day, while the ECMWF has a much slower solution and the NAM actually spins up a pseudo-nor’easter that passes on Friday and is long gone by Saturday (not buying that at the moment). So what to do? Well to start with, the most likely scenario calls for clouds and some shower activity for at least the morning hours through about midday. I’d be surprised if we can clear the air fast enough to just break out the sun and have a great day. The ECMWF may be overly pessimistic, but it’s also generally the best performing model. We’ve still got a couple of days to figure out the exact details but for now I’m thinking a wet morning followed by some increasing sun for the afternoon, particularly west of I-495. If anyone stays socked in with clouds and showery weather, it’d most likely be the Cape/Islands. So beach conditions aren’t looking so hot, literally and figuratively, on Saturday.
BUT…all systems go for Sunday. Great agreement amongst the data that high pressure will be overhead and we’ll have a spectacular Father’s Day around the area with plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures. Highs will likely top out near 80, some local sea breezes will develop, and it should be perfect for grilling, the beach, chillin’ in a hammock, whatever your fancy is. Cheers to all the Dads out there.
To start next week that anticyclone moves off to the south and gets the heat pumping across the East Coast. Expecting us to be well into the 80s on Monday on southwesterly winds and a little jump in humidity, with a very toasty Tuesday. Will we get our first 90º? Well….850mb temps are progged to be in the +15 to +17ºC range. That’s sufficient, with sunshine, to get there. Of course that’s a long way out so we’ll see if the pattern holds. Upper level winds turn more westerly during this period so we’ll eye some short-wave disturbances riding through on Tuesday/Wednesday. If that kind of heat and humidity can develop, we may get some of the first big time boomers of the season. Stay tuned!
GFS forecast 2m Max temps on Monday. Lots of eastern warmth! Source: WeatherBell