It’s Been 7+ Months
A great thing about living in New England? The weather’s always changing on us. You can’t say it’s dull, and each season brings its own character. But I have to admit (and I know some of you LOVE winter) – the length of time before warm weather’s exit and return is a bit much for me. I like my 70s and 80s. They feel good. People smile. Baseball games are more enjoyable. A cold beer tastes better. That’s just me, and I know not everyone will agree, but I’m pretty pumped for the weather I see ahead in our forecast!
Yesterday the gloom was over CT and the NYC area. Today, it’s our turn. These were surface temps in the afternoon on Thursday (left) and the batch of clouds that hung around the area all day (right).
One cool day in the way of all that, and it’s today. The warm front that has been moving about as fast as a human would walk from Pennsylvania to Massachusetts is finally on our doorstep, and along that boundary rides clouds and showers. So today looks mostly cloudy, with showers coming down along that front (especially in the am-early afternoon). Could even be some heavier downpours embedded or a rumble of thunder. We’ll have to see how healthy the MCS that should swing down from the Great Lakes is. With an onshore flow at the surface, temperatures should hold in the 50s to near 60. So not the best day of the week, but hey at least it’s Friday. No such thing as a bad Friday.
Mother’s Day Weekend
If you want to do something outside, like gardening, with Mom this weekend – Sunday is your day. While mild air will be in place for Saturday, the overall setup looks more unsettled. We run the risk of Friday night rain, which may linger into the morning. Then we should have a dry window before more showers and storms develop along a cold front by mid/late afternoon and sweep east. Overall, it’s the late afternoon into first half of the overnight that looks to have the highest rain risk. High temps up around 70 will make it feel fine outside, even with the clouds. Some breaks of sunshine should also mix in from time to time.
Mother’s Day itself looks glorious at this point. The front should have made its way through overnight, a westerly wind takes hold, and temperatures will soar up into the 70s. I wouldn’t rule out a couple towns hitting 80 on Sunday…so plan that brunch with Mom outside! If things hold it should be one of the nicest days we’ve seen all year so far.
A Shot At 80?
It’s been a while, folks. We haven’t hit 80 degrees in Boston since October 2nd. That’s 7+ months. Seven. You get what I’m saying here. 850mb temps are forecast to soar to near +14C on Monday. The southwesterly flow should give us a very good shot at topping 80º across much of the area, especially from MetroWest – westward. The air mass should be modified by the water as it flows across the Cape/Islands and South Coast, so maybe not quite sunbathing at the beach time just yet. But if you’re hardy, I say go for it. Most of the Northeast will be getting a full-on taste of summer to start the week.
There are still some questions on how Tuesday/Wednesday evolve next week. The GFS has a front lining up well to our west, with soaring temperatures out ahead of it. The ECMWF and to a certain degree the GEM are showing a stronger area of high pressure over SE Canada, driving in a backdoor cold front by Monday night and with it much cooler air. So what does it boil down to? Highs either near 90 on Tuesday or in the low 50s. No big deal. In any case, we don’t have to worry about it too much as it is several days off in the distance, so we’ll get a better handle on how it will play out over the next couple of days. My inkling is to say that the backdoor front may get down to SW Maine, and maybe as far as Cape Ann…but may halt before crashing the party for all of Metro West and SNE. We’ll update you as we get closer. In any case, no major storm systems expected through Wednesday.