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Split Decision

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WBZ-TV's Barry Burbank

WBZ-TV’s Barry Burbank

EURO1 2-13-14There is a split decision regarding forecast confidence this week. It runs from high the first half to low the second half. By late tomorrow to early Tuesday, there should be more clarification for the period of Thursday through Saturday. The reason for the uncertainty stems from conflicting signals and inconsistency from the model guidance due to a busy atmosphere that is loaded with multiple perturbations. The trick is determining how these disturbances in the upper level wind field are going to interact. Which ones will weaken or strengthen or merge or change speed, etc? It is a tough call at this time. One of the models which has a great past track record has been less reliable this season which is disturbing. In any event, its latest solution is depicting an intensifying storm running up the eastern seaboard yanking a wedge of warmer air into eastern New England suggesting snow to rain on Thursday. My sense is that the center of that storm will be closer to or just off the coast thereby yielding a higher snow threat for the Boston area. Again, it remains an enigma for the time being so we need to be patient for about another 24-48 hours for a more defining look at the potential. Beyond that, another storm may arrive later next Saturday into Sunday from the Ohio Valley and deepen as it moves closer to New England. Could one or both of these systems be plowable events? We shall see.

2013_ACCUMULATION_MAP_ACTIVEIn the meantime, lets focus on the known elements ahead. A weak impulse will exit the area later this morning so there should be lots of sunshine developing many areas while clouds release a dusting to an inch or so of snow on portions of Cape Ann and parts of the South Shore and Cape Cod.  As additional snow showers occur along the coast this afternoon, it will turn cloudier elsewhere just ahead of the light snow moving in from NY into western New England. The light snow should become more widespread this evening then exit after midnight to be long gone by the morning commute. Roads may become slippery this evening in places. The weak storm approaching from the Ohio Valley will pass offshore leading to a blend of sunshine and clouds tomorrow. Temperatures will max out in the upper 20s to near or slightly over 30 today, upper 20s tomorrow then middle 20s on Tuesday when a zone of high pressure will be poised over the region by late in the day. That will enhance radiational cooling Tuesday night with some single numbers and teens likely. Wednesday’s sunshine will fade in the afternoon as high cloudiness increases and it warms to near 32.

For those who alpine and/or nordic ski, snowboard, snowmobile and snowshoe, conditions have improved nicely thanks to last Wednesday’s storm. More trails are open for your pleasure and surface conditions are reported as mainly groomed packed powder. Another big dumping of snow would be so sweet because that would open up almost all of the glades and shoots. Overall, you’ll find some mighty fine conditions on the trails today. The wind is light and the temperatures will rise into the 20s most areas with colder summit locations. Most areas will receive up to 1-3″ tonight. The potential exists for snow especially for the southern resorts on Thursday. Please be courteous and in control on the trails throughout New England. Have a happy and safe time.

BOSTON_biggest_SNOWSTORMSAs mentioned in my blog of last evening, this is the one-year anniversary of the Blizzard of 2013 which turned out to be Boston’s 5th biggest snowstorm on record!

Danielle Niles will post her thoughts late today and Todd Gutner will follow early tomorrow. I look forward to taking my traveling weather show to the 240-5th graders at the McCarthy Middle School in Chelmsford tomorrow.

Make it a great week!

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