Based upon digesting some fresh data over the past several hours, I deem it necessary to slightly revise and tweak the scenario that I released on this morning’s blog.
On this Groundhog Day, February 2nd, it turned out even a few degrees higher than I had predicted. Instead of 50, it surged to 52-55 in many areas. It reached 55 at Logan Airport and that ties the record high for this date set in 1988! So continuing the trend that was established earlier this winter, there will be another drastic change over the next 12-24 hours from 55 degrees today to some accumulating snow tomorrow. This is where the revision is warranted. Earlier this morning, I predicted a few flakes to a coating along the MA Pike ranging up to an inch from Providence to Plymouth with 2″ from Newport to Nantucket. Latest indications point to this impending system coming a bit farther north so I feel that the coating line should be pushed up to near the NH border, the inch line advances to the MA Pike into Boston with the 3″ line from Providence to Plymouth and possibly up to 4-5″ from Newport to Nantucket. The satellite signature is depicting a decent wave of low pressure pluming into the Tennessee Valley with some heavier snow in Kentucky this evening so this system bears watching. There could be a strip of heavier snow in the range of 5-8″ from just north of Washington, DC to near Philadelphia to NYC! Expect delays at those hubs tomorrow!
I presently see no reason for revision regarding the more important storm slated for Wednesday. Where it stays all snow, a more typical 1:10 ratio snow will tally 5-10″. It will not be a fluffer like some previous storms this season. There will be some sleet mixing in from Providence to just north of Plymouth to perhaps Scituate. Snow will likely change to rain on Cape Cod so the amounts will be lowered in these places under 5″. As a secondary storm forms over Delmarva and tracks south of New England, the east to northeasterly wind will increase to 15-30 mph with some higher gusts near and offshore. Since rapid intensification to a gale center is not anticipated, I am not expecting an issue with the high tides on Wednesday. The 3am tide scheduled height of 10.1′ willnot pose a problem. The 3:30pm tide of 9.4′ should only result in some splashover at the more vulnerable shore road locations.
Next weekend’s potential stormy weather is low confidence currently. There is a busy jet stream with multiple pieces of energy. It remains to be seen how each piece will fit into the puzzle so it is an enigma for now. A number of various outcomes could be plausible at this point. There might be a weak initial impulse to create some light snow later Saturday afternoon and that might be followed by a more powerful developing storm for later Sunday or that energy might be kicked offshore by upstream energy. It’s a tough cloudy call right now. It will be interesting to follow the zigging and zagging solutions as the week unfolds.
Todd Gutner posts his thoughts tomorrow morning and Eric Fisher follows later in the day. I look forward to visiting the Sherwood Middle School in Shrewsbury with two weather presentations tomorrow.
Make it a great week!