2013_Surface AnalysisJanuary has been roller coaster month. With the crazy ups and downs, it’s like being on the Corksrew Coaster at Canobie Lake Park or on the Expedition Everest train at Disney’s Animal Kingdom. Hang on tight! After yesterday’s “balmy” weather with highs flirting with 4o in many locations, the temperatures were nearly cut in half today with highs of only 20-23 degrees! It was a bone-chilling morning with the gusty wind that has now slackened a bit. That wind will shift into the southwest and drive milder air into the region overnight. Expect rising temperatures through the 20s overnight with readings at 7am around 30 or higher in the Boston area southward. This surge of warmth is occurring ahead of an approaching cold front that will trigger another free fall of temperatures tomorrow night and Tuesday. Before that happens, we have a window of opportunity to enjoy highs of 40-45 tomorrow! The cold frontal passage will occur early in the morning over northwestern New England and closer to early afternoon in the Boston area. There is a risk of a few spotty sprinkles or light rain showers scooting through near the front with snow flurries restricted to mainly western and northern New England. The next arctic attack happens tomorrow night with temperatures projected to be in the upper single numbers north and west of Boston with 10-12 degrees in the city and upper teens over southeastern MA by 7am Tuesday. This is a frigid air mass so I am not expecting much of a rise on Tuesday. Once again, it will probably not exceed 20 in the Boston area with teens to the north and west and lower 20s over Cape Cod. A ridge of high pressure will build into the Northeast on Wednesday with a recovery into the lower to middle 20s after starting in the single numbers in the morning. Wednesday night will be chilly again with some radiational cooling to the single numbers.

2012 500mb The Rise And Fall AheadLooking ahead, changes will be far less dramatic at the end of this week into the following week as arctic air retreats into Canada as the steering currents favor a more zonal flow of air west to east across the country. This developing pattern will support a boundary setting up from central CA to the mid-central Plains to the Tennessee Valley to the Mid-Atlantic region. North of this axis, cold but not super frigid air will reside while increasingly mild air takes up space south of the boundary. With impulses migrating through the jet stream, waves of low pressure will form which means a stormier scenario could be in the works commencing the first week of February. Clearly, it is too premature to be confident of timing and specifics but it warrants us to be vigilant for a few to several potential weather makers crossing the country and perhaps impacting the Northeast. Hopefully, this emerging pattern will lead to more substantial snowfall events for the ski resorts. They need a big dumping of snow to open up all the glades and non-snow-making slopes. Nordic skiers and snowmobilers would appreciate this as well.

Todd Gutner posts his thoughts tomorrow morning and Eric Fisher will follow later in the day. I will be delivering weather presentations at the Lincoln-Hancock School in Quincy and the St. Agatha School in Milton.

Make it a great week!


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