Snow On The Way…
An Arctic airmass is settling into New England and will really establish itself over the next couple of days leading up to a weekend storm. Temps will struggle to get into the mid 20s today and upper 20s tomorrow before backing off again on Saturday into the mid 20s again.
Energy from the West Coast will slide across the southern part of the country giving rise to an area of low pressure lee of the Rockies in the Southern Plains. This low will then be guided north by a sharpening long wave trough to it’s north. The low will not strengthen much and this will never be a big storm…it severely lacks support both in the mid and upper levels so precip generation will be dominated by overrunning or in other words, warm air riding up and over the thick layer of arctic air. That will be enough for several inches of snow but without the upper level dynamics I can’t see this being a major one.
Light NE winds will commence Saturday morning and given the wind direction and the fact that it will be directing arctic air over the much milder ocean, flurries should be numerous during the first half of the day. Later in the day the storm system will get closer and the winds will pick up a bit especially aloft allowing for more precip to form and the snow will get steadier. The storm will be closest to us early Sunday morning when snow intensity peaks then it tapers off during the morning and is pretty much out of here by midday Sunday.
There are indications that there will be mixing especially near the coast and over SE Mass but I am growing increasingly skeptical of that. I can see sleet mixing in at times in those locals and maybe some rain over the Islands but the cold will be deep and tough to penetrate.
With this being a mainly snow event it becomes all about how much…early thoughts have most in a 3-6″ zone with 1-3″ expected over SE Mass (especially Cape & Islands)…there is also a chance for higher amounts NW of Boston (mainly outside of 495 of 6+”). This will certainly be a plowable snow and for many the first of the season.