A Numbing November Day
Two years ago, November turned out to be extremely warm with the mean temperature just under 6 degrees above the average. Contrast that with this November. Through yesterday, the mean temperature was a tenth of a degree below the average. Then the arctic chill rushed in from Canada via a powerful wind of 20-50 mph today. Windchill temperatures have been in the teens and single digits most of the day and they will drop a bit more to almost zero at times in spots especially through this evening. After midnight, the wind will gradually relax but the breeze will still be bone-chilling tomorrow morning as you head out to work or school. Interestingly, previous Novembers that were more than 2-3 degrees above the average produced winters with much below average snowfall. Last November’s mean temperature was 2.7 degrees below the average and we ended up with more than 63″ of snow which was about 20″ above the average. When this month ends a week from today, it appears that it will go into the record books with a mean temperature below the average but not matching the magnitude of last November’s negative departure. Can we draw any concrete conclusion about the winter ahead? I will post my detailed winter outlook next Saturday evening coincident with the WBZ Weather Team’s “Eye On Weather- Winter Preview” at 7:30 pm. It will be a very interesting show!
Albeit very cold with some near record low temperatures at dawn, it will turn out much less harsh tomorrow thanks to a weak wind of 5-15 mph. A ridge of high pressure will cross the region and the wind will shift from west to southwest and the core of the cold air will shift out of the region. As a result, the afternoon high around 32 will actually be more tolerable. Sunshine will prevail with only a few clouds showing up in the afternoon. Milder air will continue to flow into the Northeast tomorrow night with lows in the middle to upper 20s followed by a rise to the lower to middle 40s on Tuesday. Sunshine will be dim or limited early Tuesday as moisture streams northeastward from an emerging storm from the Gulf of Mexico.
Despite tonight’s cold blast, this next storm that impacts the region will be a warm and wet one. It will start raining Tuesday evening with a potential 1-3″ through Wednesday. This inside runner will draw some very warm and even humid air into eastern New England with potential southerly gales especially over Cape Cod and perhaps up into the Boston area too. With this projected trajectory, I wouldn’t be surprised to see temperatures of 60-65 degrees on Wednesday before the cold front shifts eastward and a surge of cold returns late Wednesday. Looking ahead to Thanksgiving morning, I am anticipating strong west to northwesterly winds of 15-45 mph with perhaps a few spotty flurries early before most of the road races and high school football games get underway. By the way, I hope to see you at the FeasterFiveRoadRace in Andover Thursday morning. Most of the rest of Thanksgiving Day will feature a partly to mostly sunny sky with a decreasing wind in the afternoon as temperatures max out in the middle to upper 30s.
For holiday travelers this week, it appears that most of the country will be quiet weatherwise except along the eastern seaboard on Tuesday and Wednesday.It should mainly be a rain deal with some light snow or snow showers in a narrow band on the western periphery of the precipitation shield over portions of the Appalachians extending into western NY and western PA. The swath of heavy snow will likely occur mainly over parts of eastern Ontario into western Quebec. Flight delays are inevitable in the eastern corridor. More good news is that traveling back from your holiday break on Saturday or Sunday, you will encounter few weather woes except perhaps in the northwestern corner of the country and also a bit of light snow or flurries right here in New England.
Todd Gutner posts his thoughts Monday morning.
Have a happy and safe Thanksgiving week!