Riding the November Weathercoaster
The graphic below says it all…we’re celebrating multiple decades! Or more accurately, many swings in high temperatures lately. Highs have varied widely to close out October and kick off November. We’re at the bottom of the bowl right now, so there’s only one direction to move in over the days ahead!
Tonight it’s another cold one, with 20s to low 30s for overnight lows. Most of those low temperatures will be in the first half of the night under clear skies. Some high/mid-level cloudiness will move in from the west after that, insulating the lower atmosphere a bit. Temperatures in general will be warming above our heads, so that too will cut temperatures from heading all the way down into the teens.
Tuesday is another chilly but dry day as high pressure builds just to the east of overhead. This will bring about a light onshore flow, and that easterly wind will also help bring in a little low-level moisture. Overall, expecting more cloudiness than we saw on Monday, with highs in the upper 40s to around 50. Cool again for Tuesday night, but not quite as bad with more 30s than anything else.
Winds will turn more southerly on Wednesday and 850mb temps will rise to the +7-9º range. That being said, it’s tough to get nice clear skies when warm air is flowing in this time of year. It bumps into the cool air at the surface, and since that cool air is more dense than warm air it rises. Rising air = water vapor condenses and voila – clouds! So Wednesday will probably feature quite a bit of mid-level cloudiness. That being said, at least it will be a little milder with highs in the mid 50s for most.
The mild air continues to take over Wednesday night, and by Thursday we’ll be able to jump into the mid 60s (much like last week). However, showers will move in by early Thursday and it will be quite breezy out. Not exactly perfect outdoor weather. I’d like to say it is going to pour out, since we really do need the moisture around much of southern New England right now – but alas I don’t think that will be the case. Once again, most of the energy with this front will head up into Canada to our northwest, and so limited showers is all we end up with. I’ll be surprised if anyone ends up with .25″ of rain at this point…but we’ll keep an eye on it.
Cold air blasts on down again behind the showers, and Friday looks blustery and dry with highs in the 40s. We’ll manage a very nice start to the weekend with mostly sunny skies on Saturday, but the setup looks a bit more interesting for Sunday. An area of low pressure across New York may be transferring some energy to the coast, which could help draw down colder air and wrap in some Atlantic moisture. The pattern is pretty progressive so the window will be small here, but there may be a chance for some rain & snow showers around on Sunday. In any case, another burst of cold air will follow, and next Monday looks a lot like this past one!