In my opinion, October is the best month of the year (toss-up with September, but the pumpkins are the tie-breaker). And this year has been no exception. So many bright days, crisp but comfortable weather, etc. Only 3 cloudy days have gone into the books through the 28th. But this week will start to make things interesting as we head into November.
Tonight and into tomorrow it’s all about the chilly. A cold front that moved through Monday evening is ushering in cold and very dry air. Lows will dip into the 20s for many suburbs, and bottom out as low as 22º. The Cape & Islands will stay in the upper 30s/low 40s, with mid 30s in downtown Boston. But I think the defining thing about this air mass is its dryness. Dew points will drop into the teens tonight, and perhaps single digits tomorrow. That’s bone dry, and prime chapped lips/dry skin weather! Lots of subsidence in the atmosphere too, so mainly clear skies both tonight and Tuesday. With 850mb temps at -5C Tuesday and somewhat shallow mixing, many towns will stay in the 40s.
Tuesday is also the 1-year Anniversary of Hurricane Sandy’s landfall. I could go on for days talking about this incredible storm and its unique path/impact. There are many events planned to commemorate the storm and recovery, especially around New York City and the Jersey Shore. We’ll be out live to talk about the storm and its legacy from the MA shore during the evening news.
A short-wave will dive through the Northeast on Wednesday, and bring with it some enhanced lift in atmosphere. That means more clouds yielding partly sunny skies, and also the risk for a couple rain showers. However, it will be borderline cold enough where those showers could come in the form of snow! No accumulation, but a fun novelty event possible. Any moisture will be gone by the evening so dry and chilly weather expected for Game 6 at Fenway Park.
A more substantial storm will start to approach on Halloween. This is energy coming from a deep trough in the western U.S., which may even spawn a few tornadoes in the middle of the Nation this week. The first sign of this storm for us will be a warm front reaching in on Thursday, bringing a pretty solid sheet of clouds and winds turning to the south. The main question is – will rain be a problem for our trick-or-treating? Well the trend this fall has been for energy to track up to our north and west…plus the low levels of the atmosphere will still be on the dry side. My gut says most of the rain will stay to our west, but that a few showers will be possible during the afternoon/evening. As it stands, not the kind of rain that ruins Halloween fun (or the potential Game 7 at Fenway Park). For now we’ll call it mainly cloudy, a chance of showers, breezy, and mild. At least no frigid weather is in play! In fact we should stay well into the 50s during trick-or-treat time.
THEN we get to Friday…the most active day of weather this week. A wet and windy day looks pretty likely at this point. While the main slug of moisture may move to our west, it’ll be hard to miss out on at least *some* rainfall. Still a bit too early to tell how much. But temperatures will rocket up through the 60s and if conditions are right I wouldn’t rule out some thunderstorms as the front approaches. The real ‘lock’ of the forecast is the wind. Many models show winds over hurricane force at 850mb (a few thousand feet up) and I’m thinking we’ll gust at least 45mph at the ground level. Highest gusts would be across SE Mass, and leaves that have been hanging on are going to go buh-bye by Saturday morning. Raking season will officially be upon us!
Temperatures will slowly cool on Saturday, with a secondary front bringing MUCH colder air for Sunday. Both weekend days look mainly dry at the moment, with perhaps a shower or two on Saturday. We also ‘Fall Back’ Sunday morning at 2am, which means you get an extra hour of sleep! Daylight Saving Time will come to an end and Sunday’s sunset will be at 4:35. Ouch.