For the past week, our weather has been controlled by a high pressure system near or over us, and spinning low pressure system (what is left of Karen) parked off the mid-Atlantic and Carolina coastline. Not much has changed here. As the title says, the song remains the same. Sure, there are a few clouds streaming through tonight thanks to a weak cold front pushing through, but that front will be gone tomorrow and we will be right back to where we left off before.
Tuesday may start off with a few clouds with this front near by, but skies will increase with sun..Partly to mostly sunny skies and slightly warmer temps in the mid-upper 60′s inland. Light SE winds will still keep it cooler at the coast. The low which has been parked south of New England will finally begin to crawl northward as high pressure finally loses it’s grip and begins to pull away. Clouds and showers will stream up the coast. While the showers will mainly stay off the coast, clouds will increase Tuesday night into Wednesday.
The overall pattern is a mild one for this time of year for the eastern half of the nation with an upper level ridge in the east, and a trough in the western states. Cool air spilling down into the plains clashing into this mild air in place is helping to form a more energized Jetstream which will direct a few disturbances/shortwaves from the Midwest right up into the northeast. Tracking these waves along with their lift will be critical in the timing and chances of showers.
A low in the Midwest will be tracking into the Great Lakes and approach New England for the Midweek. The combination of clouds streaming up the coast, with this low’s approaching warm front will lock in the clouds and the risk of a few late day showers Wednesday. The cold front will push through Thursday with a few showers in the morning. This front will stall over us Thursday, with another short wave approaching Friday morning which could trigger another few showers.
Once this front pushes off the coast, the door will be open for some slightly cooler drier air to arrive in New England for the weekend. With a SW flow aloft, we won’t cool that much, simply become more seasonal in the Lwr 60′s Saturday to near 60 Sunday. But it will be part of a break down and an overall shift in the pattern. As a deeper upper level trough will become established across the Northeast around Wednesday October 23rd. The unseasonal cold air will dive down the Plains first before arriving here in the middle of next week. This will likely start the beginning of several more pronounced shots of colder air which will be driven into the northeast to end the month of October into Early November. Right on time!