An unsettled start to the week

By: Chief Meteorologist Eric Fisher
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Boston Logan got wet today! Well, barely. But at least it did end a streak. The 0.01″ that fell early Monday morning was enough to be the first measurable rainfall since August 9th. And we’ll have more chances to add to that total over the next few days.

It’s a tricky forecast ahead; as there is quite a bit of disagreement in the models. Global models (like the GFS, ECMWF) shunt batches of overnight rain mainly to our south Monday night. The mesoscale models (like the RPM) have been shifting the rain more northerly. At this point, the best bet looks to keep the heaviest rain south of the Mass Pike. That’s where most of the instability is, and there’s more upper-air support lurking down toward NYC. With that said, showers and a few rumbles are expected to cross the region overnight, bringing at least some rain.

Those showers (and certainly the clouds) are expected to stick around for tomorrow morning. So for the few school districts with students heading back, and umbrella may be needed! This looks most likely for the shoreline communities. Clouds will hold tight until about midday. After that breaks of sun should develop, helping temps bump up into the low 80s. The best shot at sun should be inland, while the North Shore to the Cape will likely be grayer.

With the sun there will also come some instability, so a few pop-up showers and storms should dot the map again Tuesday afternoon. Most storms should stay under severe limits.

On Wednesday a trough in the jet stream will stick around the Northeast, helping to produce more scattered storms during the afternoon and evening hours. Some of these could produce heavy rain and gusty winds. On Thursday that trough will start to lift, but there still may be enough ‘juice’ in the atmosphere to work with to spark a few more showers and storms in the afternoon. We’ll be watching this chance closely, especially with the Patriots last pre-season home game at Gillette!

We turn the corner right in time for the holiday weekend. The trough will lift out, a ridge will try to sneak in from the west, and a warm-up will be the end result. More sun and temps in the 80s are looking like a good bet for the Labor Day weekend, or at least the very start of it. Monday is still up in the air, as we’ll watch the timing of a cold front sweeping down from Canada. Still a long way off, so don’t cancel plans yet!

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