Hard to say goodbye to this weekend…the last full weekend of August. The waning moments of this summer are so bittersweet. But this weekend was just such a delight. Some areas of the country are not so sweet. It is heart breaking watching the fires near Yosemite devour acres of forest and engulf homes. The heat wave in the Midwest means business with temps well into the 90′s and at times even climbing above 100. This is a prolonged intense heat wave which will remain in place through the Midwest through the Labor Day Weekend. This kind of intense heat could have a major impact on the crops in the Midwest which have had such a hard time with drought in the past 3 years. This kind of heat will not help the harvest. This heat is because of a giant heat ridge which remains in place in the middle part of the nation. A weak trough is in place across the northeast which provides a NW flow aloft. Several pieces of energy will be riding over the ridge and into the NW flow into New England for the next few days spawning a few showers and the periodic thunderstorm.
Our first disturbance is already on our doorstep with showers already entering into Vermont. Clouds will be increasing overnight. Showers spread into NNE overnight and approach the MA Pike by dawn. It does not look very heavy, wit a few tenths of an inch of rain possible with the best chance of showers on Monday likely happening during the morning hours. Breaks of midday sun will try to pop through during the afternoon. This could trigger a brief pop up shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 70′s and Lwr 80′s with a breezy SW wind ahead of the approaching front. This cold front will push towards the coast on Monday night-Tuesday. Showers could linger at the south coast Monday night. By Tuesday, partly sunny skies, muggy warm conditions with highs in the Lwr-mid 80′s depending upon the amount of sun we see. More clouds could mean cooler temps, but right now I am leaning towards Tuesday being a mainly dry day with the slight risk of a pop up shower or T’storm during the late afternoon.
On Wednesday, a more vigorous shortwave will slide into the NW flow aloft, with a developing trough over New England. Surface low pressure will spin up over New England with showers and a few thunderstorms more likely by Wednesday…starting in the morning and lasting into the evening. This will likely be our wettest period of the week with a noticeable more humid feel to the air. The low will be off the coast of Nantucket early Thursday morning. Maybe a few lingering showers early at the coast. Behind the departing low, drying NW winds for the afternoon with breaking sunshine with highs in the Lwr 80′s.
Weak upper level ridging spells a good day for Friday with highs near 80 and less humidity. Weak trough on Saturday with shortwave could provide enough lift to spawn a shower Saturday. A flatter flow for Sunday with warmer temps near 80-85 degrees with more sunshine. Overall, a fine Labor Day Weekend is still in the cards.
The tropics still remain awfully quiet with imminent threat on the horizon. Computer models are beginning to sniff our and uptick in activity heading into September just as we approach the peak of Hurricane season.