July and early August tend to be quiet in the tropics. This year has held true to form. Dust and sand blowing off the African continent from the Saharan desert has to helped suppress any early development to the Cape Verde season. As sometimes a parade of storms can be launched from off the coast of Africa and can become a breeding ground for storms to develop as they move over the warm waters of the equatorial Atlantic. Now that the dust is beginning to settle, the tropics are coming to life right on schedule! Early September (September 10th) is considered the peak of hurricane season and we should see a noticeable uptick in tropical storm and hurricane formation in the coming weeks as NOAA is still predicting an active above normal season.
Coming just off the coast of Africa, TD #5 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Erin. It currently has 40 mph winds and is expected to continue to strengthen as it tracks west for the next 24-48 hours. The problem is real estate and the amount of dry air this storm will have to overcome to survive. It will likely not survive the trip across the Atlantic and likely suffer the same fate as Dorian.
Meanwhile, there is a tropical wave off the coast of the Yucatan which showed promise of development, at least by our models, but currently is showing little signs of life and looking less organized. This wave has an open circulation with little in the way of thunderstorms. SW winds aloft by an upper low in the Gulf, are shearing this wave apart as it approaches the Peninsula. Once into the southern Gulf it could move into a more favorable area for strengthening. Some models have been steering this wave into Mexico as nothing much more than a little rain, while others have steered this back into the Gulf and becomes a larger storm which could make landfall along the gulf states this weekend as a stronger storm. We will have to watch this as well. So that all said, this is just the beginning of the tropical Atlantic season which is sure to become more interesting and potentially dangerous in the weeks to come.
Of course, here at home, the weather could not be more ideal for August. A deep upper level trough across the eastern US has supplied slightly cooler than normal temps for the Northeast. overnight lows have felt a bit chilly, but the sunshine in the afternoon is making the weather absolutely perfect for being outside and enjoying all that nature can offer. High pressure at the surface controls our weather. yesterday it was a cool NW breeze. Today, winds will be light from the west which will make for temps to be close to 5 degrees warmer with many areas approaching 78-79 degrees by afternoon. Winds will start to shift to the SW for Friday with temps near 80 in most areas. By the weekend winds will be shifting to the SE which will make for a cooler breeze at the coast, and lwr 80’s inland.
High pressure will remain over us right through the weekend ensuring the pleasant, dry comfortable weather with sunshine and seasonal temps. A stalled front off the coast will have showers riding up the coast from time to time. All the showers will remain off the coast, but sometimes a few high to mid level clouds may break off the showers and spill through new England. 1st word problems.
Looking ahead to next week a major pattern change will begin to take place. The upper trough which has been so persistent in the pattern is finally going to lift out. This is the trough which broke down our last heat wave and has supplied temps in the 70’s ever since! This trough may be having it’s last days over us. A much flatter flow develops to the Jetstream next week which will allow more warmth and humidity to build across the US. In fact, a large upper ridge will become established for the middle to end of next week across the Eastern US. Temps will climb into the 80’s next week with still plenty of sunshine and dry conditions. We will be nearing 90 by the midweek (Wed-Thur). There is a real potential for the warmth to remain in place right through the end of August and lead right into September. Labor Day Weekend could be hot one! Of course that is too far a way to really know, but the signals are lined up for some real late summer heat. We just may have another heat wave in us before this summer is through. So enjoy this stretch of weather coming up. It does not get any better. Meanwhile, we will be keeping a close eye on the upcoming trends and bends as usual!