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Just The Beginning

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It was supposed to rain and it did rain but it didn’t rain anywhere near the predicted amount yesterday. Surprisingly, the most reliable model guidance failed and so did I. Once in a while, a meteorological situation seems almost certain but it blows up in your face. Oh well. Two areas of rain merged but the heaviest portion of the southern batch suddenly peeled off to the right and missed most of the region. I doubt that too many people are upset about it but it was worth an explanation. Hopefully, the forecast of fantastic weather for a long spell will work out and I see no reason at the present time for any upcoming revisions. The only feature that could foul up the prognostication is a frontal boundary south of New England. One or two periods of high cloudiness will probably blossom northeastward up over New England especially southern areas over the weekend but the rain should stay south of the area as the ridge of high pressure is locked in place with its associated dry air.

In the more short-term, a trough of low pressure will advance southeastward across New England today. It will be the primary catalyst for developing puffy clouds which will become most numerous over western and northern New England where some spotty mainly light showers will break out primarily over the higher hills and mountains. Very dry air rushed into the region around daybreak on the heels of a cold front which is now passing offshore from Cape Cod. The dewpoints have dipped into the 40s! This refreshing air will linger through the weekend although the dewpoints will be rising slightly through the period. After today’s gusty westerly wind of 15-30 mph, less wind is expected tomorrow with light wind for several ensuing days. That will support a daily sea breeze which will keep the beaches a bit cooler than elsewhere where high temperatures in the upper 70s to eventually lower 80s will occur over the weekend. Sunshine should be prevalent going forward other than the more noticeable high cloudiness over part of the weekend. Plan on nippy nights ahead with the coolest lowland locations down to 46-52 degrees through Friday ranging up to the lower 60s in the larger urban centers.

Looking ahead, the same zone of high pressure may still be in control much, if not all, of next week. That means sunny to partly cloudy days with little or no chance of any rain. As time goes on, the air mass will be warming so it is possible that it may eventually turn hot and rather humid here again the second half of next week but sea breezes will offer some cooling at the beaches. I now suspect that we are vulnerable to at least a couple more days at 90 degrees or higher. Last August, there were two 90-degree days in Boston and none in September. Recently, in 2010, we had a 5-day heat wave on the last 3 days of August into the first 2 days of September. The max temperatures were 94, 92, 96, 94 and 95 respectively. That is rare for so late in the season and I am not suggesting it will happen this year either.

The tropics will probably become more active in the next few weeks as we approach the peak period of the season which is September 10. There are two suspicious areas that are currently being monitored closely. For more information, logon to the National Hurricane Center. The next named storm will be Erin.

This is just the beginning of a long spell of wonderful weather so ENJOY! … And make it a great day!

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