Patriots Given Fourth-Best Chance To Win Super Bowl In Computer Simulation
BOSTON (CBS) — The preseason is all about making predictions. Some prove to be accurate, but most end up being flat-out wrong, forgotten as soon as the real action begins.
Nevertheless, predictions are just about all we have at this point of the NFL season, and one of them is offering pretty high hopes for the New England Patriots.
PredictionMachine.com, which uses “The Predictalator” to simulate the NFL seasoned 50,000 times, gave the San Francisco 49ers the best chances of winning the Super Bowl, with a 20.1 percent chance to win it all. The Broncos are second at 14.6 percent, with the Green Bay Packers third at 10.5 percent and Patriots fourth at 8.9 percent.
The same simulator gives the Patriots a 78.6 percent chance of making the playoffs.
“The actual 2013 regular season and playoff schedules have been played 50,000 times, allowing us to compute average records and likelihoods of each team making the playoffs, winning its division and bringing home the Super Bowl trophy,” the website says.
The description for “The Predictalator” shows that forecasting football future is no exact science. The system has correctly picked 55 percent against the spread since it was launched in January 2010. However, the system comes through when it matters most, with a 76.5 percent rate in playoff games.