Weekend In New England
Despite the cool weather of the past couple of days, it looks like this month could turn out as the hottest July on record dating back to 1872 assuming that these last 5 days will deliver average highs close to 82 and average lows around 66. The hottest July occurred in 1983 with a mean temperature of 78.0 degrees. The second hottest July was a tie between 1952 and 1994 at 77.5 followed by the third hottest in 2011 at 77.3 and the fourth hottest in 2010 at 77.2 degrees. July 2013 was comprised of two significant heat waves- one lasting 5 days and the other lasting 7 days which ended a week ago today. Thankfully, there are no additional heat waves in the foreseeable future but August is capable of generating some ugly heat waves. A more recent memorable one lasted 8 days from the 11th to the 18th in 2002.
Following the well below average temperatures of the past two days, delightful summer weather returns today with expected highs in the middle 80s except slightly cooler at the coast especially at south-facing coastal locations as the southwesterly breeze becomes more south-southeasterly this afternoon. It is a splendid beach and boating day with no threat of any showers or storms. With plentiful sunshine, the UV Index is very high so apply that sunscreen. The tide will be rising and reach high status at 3:41pm. Although a tad cooler than it has been lately, the ocean is still pretty warm at 66-74 degrees. The seas are running at 1-3 feet with a few higher swells. The humidity dropped last evening along and north of the MA Pike and it will only bump up a bit this afternoon before turning muggier tonight.
A ridge of high pressure is moving into the region to protect us and provide some glorious weather. As it shifts offshore, a small blossoming plume of moisture over the western Atlantic will transit northward resulting in an increasing threat of some scattered showers and possible thunder by dawn tomorrow over southeastern MA. This activity will probably expand into many parts of eastern MA during tomorrow morning as a frontal boundary approaches from NY. This feature will trigger showers and storms out there and they will progress into western New England by late afternoon. This strip of showers and spotty storms will track eastward into the Worcester then Boston areas later at night into Monday morning. Although most of the showers will dwindle that morning, I cannot rule out another brief shower or storm late Monday as the drier air makes a final push. High temperatures tomorrow and Monday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s for the most part. More comfortable conditions will be here Tuesday and Wednesday with a sunny to partly cloudy sky and highs in the range of 80-84 and overnight lows in the range of 57-64.
Looking ahead, another wave of low pressure will arrive from the Ohio Valley to crank out showers and thunderstorms on the first day of August, this Thursday. As this system exits, next Friday and Saturday look decent with some sunshine and highs in the lower to middle 80s. The long range indicators point to some more showers and storms on the first Sunday of August next weekend.
Thankfully, Tropical Storm Dorian, although reflaring a bit this morning, is heading into an unfavorable atmospheric environment for intensification. There should not be any worries with that one. YAY! To keep tabs on the tropics, logon to the National Hurricane Center.
If conditions warrant any change, I will post an update this evening.
Have a happy and safe weekend.