Seriously, what is the deal with this summer? Can we just not get a decent stretch of nice, easy to predict “normal weather”. Here we are moving into the end of July and this summer is still trying to “find” itself like some sort of lost wandering college student. The current set up is much more of the same which we have seen much of the summer.
Today a front is moving through which will finally put a beat down to the humidity for a time. Sunshine and west winds have allowed temps to spike into the 80′s. Some areas in SE MA may approach 90 degrees before the day is done. It has started out a bit muggy, but dewpoints are already starting to fall in Northern new England with a wind shift to the WNW behind the front. As the front hits the coast, there may be a brief pop up or isolated shower or T’storm this early afternoon at the coast. While clouds will be increasing this afternoon, most will main dry. The drier less humid air will begin to flow in later today & tonight for a much more comfortable evening with lows in the 50′s in the ‘burbs and Lwr-mid 60′s in SE MA…closer to the cold front.
That’s right, this cold front will push offshore, but will be stalling just off the coast. The reason for the slowing pattern is a digging trough from the Great Lakes extending down into the SE states. SW flow aloft will direct moisture and warmth up the east coast, while building high pressure at the surface supplies a cooler NE wind. This will make for an overrunning pattern with warm air going up over the cooler air and forming clouds which will be streaming into New England later tonight through Thursday. Clouds and NE winds will mean a seasonably cool day Thursday in the Lwr to mid 70′s. The coast will be down right cool with 60′s and Lwr 70′s at the beaches. I think Thursday should hold off mostly dry but you can not rule out a shower.
By Friday, we will be watching a wave of low pressure riding up along the coast along this stalled front. The exact track the low takes, and it’s overall strength is still a bit in question. Some models keep the showers offshore, while others have the low and rain barreling into New England on Friday for a cool raw wet nasty day. For now, I have nowhere to go but a compromise until I see further agreement. So Friday has a risk of showers, especially at the coast, with gusty winds, increased wave action with temps still in the Lwr-mid 70′s. Some of our models are showing a stronger low which could bring in the chance for heavy rain at the coast. It is a possibility. It is a low confidence forecast.
By the weekend, this low will be pulling away. Clouds will likely start the weekend with skies increasing with sunshine Saturday as week ridging become established across the Northeast. Meanwhile , a deeper upper low will be digging back into the Great Lakes, and a again a warmer more Humid SW flow will become established, with embedded shortwaves which will track to New England By Sunday for the risk if of a few showers to storms on Sunday as warmth and humidity builds with southerly wind at the surface. In other words…much more of the same up and down weather we have experienced all winter. Just keep saying to yourself…”At least it’s not hot…” It will make you feel better about the oncoming clouds and cool conditions.