Long Heat Wave Ahead

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July averages 6 days at 90 degrees or higher and it’s beginning to look like we’ll get all 6 in a row starting on the 4th! Yes, I’m saying that a protracted heat wave is in the works as the mighty Bermuda high pressure heat pumper goes to work. It’s clockwise flow of air and a warming air mass will turn the region into a sizzling environment that may not be broken down until July 10th! Could this July rival July 2011 when it was the 2nd hottest on record? That one only had one heat wave of 4 days at or over 90 which climaxed at a whopping record of 103 degrees on the 22nd! The previous July in 2010 was the 3rd hottest on record and last July’s mean temperature was 2.0 degrees above the average. So, it is about time for a cooler than average July but it will not be 2013 unless it turns unusually cool the second half of this month and that is not foreseen at this time. The last cool July occurred in 2009 when it was 3.4 degrees below the average. Get ready for this long stretch of days in the range of 90-95 degrees. It will be a bit cooler over Cape Cod but much of the time from Thursday through next Tuesday will feature a west-southwesterly wind which will drive the heat onto the east-facing beaches.

In the shorter term, the atmosphere is all juiced up to wring out some more tropical drenching downpours today and tomorrow. The most vulnerable portion of the region for this to materialize is north and west of the Boston area much like yesterday. That doesn’t mean that other locales near the city and points south will not receive gullywasher rains. Yesterday’s rainers were potent in delivering 1 up to 3″ of rain in spots. Much of these amounts fell in 20-35 minutes! Flooding developed suddenly under the torrents from place to place. Although rotation was detected in a few cells by the Doppler Radar, most parameters were not favorable for tornadic development and the same scenario applies to today. The Windsor Locks, CT EF1 tornado had a path width of 200 yards and a path length of 2.25 miles according to the National Weather Service survey team. The Agawam, MA damage was produced by a microburst. There is no discernible short wave impulse to enhance storm development like yesterday but there are stronger than normal winds in the mid to upper levels which could produce isolated damaging wind gusts. A Flash Flood Watch remains posted for areas from north central MA north and west. There is a frontal boundary draped across northern New England this morning. There is push of cool air coming down from ME as a backdoor cold front which will likely stall somewhere from the NH Seacoast to Cape Ann later today. If you want less humid yet damp and cooler conditions today, take a trip today to the great Pine Tree State.

As the big Bermuda high changes shape and becomes more elongated in an east-west axis south of New England, the conduit of moist, showery weather will be shoved farther west and north of Boston. That works well for the city with the Boston Pops Fireworks Spectacular on the 4th. Most of the storms which form on that special day should be well away from the city with no repeat of last year’s evacuation expected. For planning purposes, it will turn out hot as a firecracker on the 4th with temperatures nudging or slightly exceeding 90 by 3pm with a drop back to the lower 80s early evening and upper 70s by 11pm. Hopefully, the natural fireworks will be waning early in the evening much farther north and west of Boston so those communities will not face a rain date for their displays.

Todd Gutner posts his blog early this evening and I shall return early tomorrow morning.

Make it a great day!

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