Today is one of those days it depends upon where you are. Buzzards Bay, The Cape & Islands have gotten off to a rough start. Early morning storms with frequent lightning, and torrential rain with rainfall rates of 1-2″ per hour caused early morning flooding. Reports of a few house fires from the lightning which was quite vivid. Meanwhile inland, it has been a fairly quiet, muggy and warm Saturday. Clouds are breaking for partly sunny skies this afternoon with a breeze from the SSW. High temps will climb to 80-85 inland, with 70′s right at the coast. Dewpoints are in the 60′s to near 70 so there is a real feel of summer in the air.
We are watching two streams of weather today. One stream directed by a SW flow from our upper level winds has been directing downpours and storms towards SE MA…especially to the Cape. This We have seen plenty of street flooding on the Cape…some afternoon improvement. SW flow will continue for the rest of the day with lots of clouds in place and maybe a few breaks by mid afternoon. We will still have to monitor for scattered showers or downpours in this persistent flow.
Meanwhile inland partly sunny skies and warm humid conditions are in place ahead of a shortwave which will be pushing into western new England this afternoon. Scattered storms will feed off the warm energy of the sun as the rising warm air will help to fuel their updrafts. The Severe storms prediction center has VT, NH, and central and Western MA in a slight risk for severe storms. Now that the sun is breaking out in full in spots, and an approaching front is nearing for the mid afternoon, I expect convection to begin to fire in NY state and begin shifting into Western new England as a batch of strong to even severe storms. These storms will come with very heavy rain with precipitable water values ranging from 1-1.5″. Due to recent heavy rains, it will not take much to get the localized flooding going again in storms. Along with these storms will be the threat of some damaging winds with may be strong enough to do some tree damage as they cross the region in the mid -late afternoon with the approaching cold front. These storms may become dangerous with rotation a may even spawn a brief tornado if all the parameters come together.
Important to note, some areas will be just fine for much of the day! Clouds have been stubborn at the coast, but we will start to see some nice beach weather developing this afternoon with partly sunny skies..especially after 2:30 or 3 PM…the best time to go to the beach anyway! We will have to see if these storms can hold together and reach the coast later today. My thinking is they will NOT..and mostly remain in Northern and Western New England like yesterday closer to the front. Still, we will have to keep an eye out for some darkening skies later today just in case.
Tonight, any storms or showers will lose their support, and energy and diminish leaving another night of thickening clouds and fog overnight. The front will be stalled over us Sunday be a little further east. Morning clouds may break to a bit of hazy sun, but again heavy rain, and thunderstorms will likely be triggered again for afternoon downpours inland with the chance of severe weather. Starting to sound familiar?
Thanks to trough over the Great lakes and a blocking pattern, this warm moist, tropical SW flow up the east coast will continue Monday into Tuesday with the risk of heavy downpours from time to time and the potential for more flash flooding where these storms slowly train over one another. By Wednesday into Thursday, the trough will be lifting away, as a western Atlantic ridge begins to strengthen. Temps will become warmer, the weather a bit drier heading towards July 4th, with less of a risk of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. In fact, we just may break down the humidity for a time slightly by the end of the week. It is still a warm humid pattern which will persist. It is a pattern so far of ridges in the west and troughs in the east. Though the trough may lift out a bit after the 4th, the recent heavy rains along the east coast is keeping the soil moist. This increased humidity, keeps temps a bit cooler and can promote more trough development. I would not be surprise to see the trough again return before the moth in through with a bit more rain to come.