Who turned off the heat? Not me but I wish I had the power, Captain! A few locations in Plymouth County and Bristol County maxed out at 90 degrees yesterday making it a 4-day heat wave for them while most of the rest of the region except Cape Cod qualified for an official heat wave of 3 consecutive days from Sunday through Tuesday. So, after a few lethargic days, we have a great opportunity to get re-energized today in this much cooler environment. The dilemma of the day is determining the extent of the low overcast burnoff. The fog will certainly thin out and disappear many areas but it could linger for hours at the coastline as a wimpy drift of Maritime air seeps in from the northeast. Apparently, a weak backdoor cold front has backed into eastern New England. The low overcast has spread well inland and the only sunny places this morning exist in the muggy air mass over western New England. There will be some occasional mist around part of the morning and some showers may move northward from CT and RI as well this morning. My weather menu offers quite a variety today ranging from the probable persistence of the low overcast over eastern sections especially northeastern MA to the potential for some brightening and some sunny breaks over Worcester County to the certainty of the most sunshine over western New England where the greatest instability will exist for the development of boomers this afternoon. Temperatures will vary from the 60s in the east to the 70s in the middle to some 80s out west. I don’t expect any massive improvement over the beaches today so it will be generally murky there all day as the tide is high in the middle of the afternoon.
The National Weather Service has posted a Flash Flood Watch effective from noon today through tomorrow afternoon. The wet weather will be released by a storm system emerging from the Ohio Valley this morning. It will transit into PA and NY through the day and shift into New England late today and mainly overnight. It has the potential of releasing 1 up to 3 inches of rain in some of the heavier convective showers. These drenching downpours will produce some flash flooding in places. This action will be repetitive over the next several days as a squeeze play is underway over the eastern seaboard. An amplifying trough of low pressure to the west linked with a strong ridge of high pressure offshore will combine to create a very moist conduit extending from GA to ME. Weak perturbations in the steering currents will serve to set off batches of showers and storms in the upcoming 7-10 days. Yes, it is still necessary to load rain into the forecast on every single one of those days. That is not to say that it will be a washout week. There will be down and drier times of some sunshine mixed in with the episodes of rain. The muggy airmass will support some big migrating rainers yielding cloudburst conditions in spots from time to time and place to place. While out on a 5-mile run late yesterday afternoon, I was caught in one of those. It is impossible to predict the precise timing of these individual disturbances farther out so I can only caution you to be prepped for a passing sprinkle up to a short deluge through next week. With the anticipated showers, the monthly rain totals will swell and Boston may jump from 4th place to second place in terms of the wettest June ever. The city’s total now is 9.84″ and 3rd place is 10.09″ in 2006. That will easily be beaten late today. The second place total of 11.58″ happened in 1998. It is unlikely but not totally ruled out that Boston could go for the gold and exceed the first place total of 13.20″ set in 1982. It is certain, however, that several areas will receive over 4″ and possibly up to 8″ of rain in favorable lift locations over the hills. The outlook may be a bit brighter for the 4th of July as more of a westerly component of the wind is introduced. There will still be scattered showers and storms but not nearly as much widespread activity as we’ll have periodically over the weekend and the first half of next week. I reiterate that those who will be traveling, camping, hiking and climbing in those most vulnerable areas especially near streams and creeks and small rivers in the mountainous terrain of western and northern New England should be cautious about flash flooding and be ready to seek higher ground suddenly.
Todd Gutner posts his blog early this evening.
Make it a great day!