Soggy Situation Ahead

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Boston’s highest temperature of 95 degrees occurred yesterday at 2:37 pm. It exceeded the 94 on May 31 and also tied the record for June 24 set in 1976. Today’s record of 97 will be approached but not challenged as I expect a max of 94 at mid-afternoon. This will be the third consecutive day at 90 or higher making it Boston’s first official heat wave of 2013. The city’s previous heat wave occurred on July 13-15 last year. As an upper level disturbance arrived late yesterday afternoon, thunderstorms erupted into the evening hours featuring some nasty cloud to ground bolts of lightning and gullywasher rains in spots. A few locales received hail and brief wind gusts. Despite the absence of a trigger trough like yesterday, there is a risk of scattered air mass showers and boomers this afternoon. There is a slight risk of some severe weather across parts of far northern New England closer to a boundary settling southward from Quebec. Some of those storms may contain some damaging wind and hail but the rest of the region’s boomers would mainly feature more dangerous cloud to ground lightning and tropical downpours. Today’s wind will mainly be from the west-southwest at 10-15 mph so the heat will again be driven to east-facing beaches with the only relief in the ocean’s temperatures of 60-64 degrees. The tide is high slightly before 1:30 pm. The humidity has dropped slightly this morning in the wake of yesterday’s disturbance but it is still  flirting with the high category.  A band of clouds will transit from southeastern MA across Cape Cod and out to sea this morning as sunshine expands from the rest of the region. The sun’s heating will eventually pop clouds to create a changeable sky for the afternoon.

Looking ahead, a very soggy monsoon-like pattern is in the works as a strong ridge of high pressure is anchored offshore and a trough of low pressure amplifies over the eastern portion of the nation. This places the eastern seaboard in a very moist conduit from the tropical Gulf of Mexico northeastward to the Canadian Maritimes. Individual impulses traveling through that trough will create episodes of showers and thunderstorms in a very ripe air mass. Consequently, tropical drenching downpours capable of producing flash flooding will be an ongoing threat for many days to come perhaps lasting through the 4th of July! The main axis of action could set up just west of the coastal plain meaning that the highest amounts of rain possibly in the range of 4-8″ will fall over the hillier terrain from Worcester County west and north where favorable uplifting cranks out the heavier rain. If you have plans to travel, camp and hike in these areas farther north and west of Boston, be ready to seek safe higher ground away from streams, creeks, rivers and ponds through the big vacation period of next week! With extremely wet antecedent conditions, it will not take too much additional rainfall to cause concerns and problems. With that said, it will not be a complete washout in the week ahead. There will be spells where sunshine is prevalent between passing perturbations but the emphasis is more on the potential rainfall. So far, this is Boston’s 4th wettest June on record. The monthly total rose to 9.80″ following last evening’s contribution of 0.33″. The 3rd wettest June is 2006 at 10.09″ followed by the 2nd wettest in 1998 at 11.58″ and the wettest in 1982 at 13.20″. With 6 more days to go, this June could easily rise into second place. Could we get the gold??? In any event, this is a disgusting scenario shaping up because we all want beautiful summer weather without any disruptive and annoying thunderstorms to spoil our plans going into the big celebratory 4th of July week. There is no real end in sight to the sticky air and that is simply depressing.

Todd Gutner posts his blog early this evening and I shall return early tomorrow morning.

In closing, many thanks to the Bs for making this a very exciting, albeit shortened, hockey season.

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