Friday Flooding?

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The first tropical storm of the season was born yesterday afternoon and Andrea is centered about 160 miles west of Tampa, FL as of 8am today. The maximum sustained winds increased to 60 mph in the early morning hours but the National Hurricane Center anticipates little additional strengthening before landfall on the Florida Panhandle. Andrea will weaken and travel up the eastern seaboard and pass over outer Cape Cod early Saturday morning. Its envelope of tropical downpours and spotty lightning/thunder will pass through the region from late tomorrow afternoon to just prior to daybreak on Saturday. A Flood Watch will likely be issued by the National Weather Service late today or tomorrow morning. With the potential of 2-3″ of rain in much of the area, there will certainly be some poor drainage location street flooding and probably some small stream flooding. River and coastal flooding is unlikely. There will be a period of gustier northeasterly winds at 15-30 mph especially along the coast except, dependent upon the precise path of the storm, perhaps southeast to southerly at 25-45 mph over parts of the Cape and especially the Islands tomorrow night where it could turn very humid. The stormiest spell will occur between high tides tomorrow night and Saturday noon. Due to its projected acceleration, the storm will be departing soon enough to enable breaking clouds during Saturday morning with some times of sunshine in the afternoon yielding highs at least in the middle 70s. So the weekend, overall, should be decent for outside activities although there is a slight risk of a few isolated afternoon showers farther north and west of Boston on Saturday. Plan on a mix of clouds and sunshine with highs near 80 on Sunday with a few showers mainly near and north of the NH Lakes Region.

Backing up to today, it will be pleasant with low humidity continuing and similar high temperatures to yesterday. Along the coast, the southeasterly breeze freshening to 10-15 mph will cool them to the upper perhaps middle 60s right on some of the beaches while inland warming supports about 75 degrees. High tide occurs around 10:40am. The sunshine will yield to varying amounts of clouds through early afternoon then mostly cloudy weather will be the rule later in the day. Some showers will be approaching from the southwest but most of that wet weather should not arrive until after midnight so, presently, I am very optimistic that the Red Sox/Rangers game will be played in dry conditions with a first pitch temperature near 66 and a light southerly breeze. Late night lows will be in the range of 55-60. Showers will be scattered and sporadic tomorrow morning before the drenching rains unfold later in the afternoon.

Looking ahead, there will be a lull between systems on Monday so there will again be a mix of clouds and sunshine with highs just under 80. After that, an emerging wave of low pressure from the Ohio Valley will introduce a spell of showery weather Monday night and Tuesday. There could be some stronger boomers associated with this system on Tuesday with a thrust of muggy weather into southern New England. Beyond that, the outlook becomes clouded, so to speak, as blocking evolves across Greenland. This will force subsequent disturbances to dig southeastward from the Great Lakes instead of streaming across southern Canada. The first such system is destined to unload rainy weather and brisk northeasterly winds 7-8 days from now. That forecast is not high confidence just yet but the developing pattern supports such a scenario. Despite the near 80 degrees later this weekend and the start of next week, there are no signs of any real hot weather or definitely no heat waves in the next 10 days or more. YES!

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