The Wheel Of Misfortune
The cool, clammy weather did hang in tough over the coastal plain yesterday as expected but that will all change today as a warm front tracks north-northeastward this morning. It is already very humid and in the middle 60s just south of Boston and that air will pour into the city and eventually stream into northeastern MA and southeastern NH. It may run into resistance on the ME coast. Many showers and some boomers are popping up this morning in the warm, muggy sector that contains a busy wind from the southwest which will spike up to 15-30 mph during the day. So you can expect a passing shower or boomer at any time today with most of the action west of the I-95 corridor. There should be few or no showers over southeastern MA and Cape Cod through most of the afternoon. There are several layers of clouds passing over the region today but I think that there will be some breakage to enable at least splashes of sunshine from place to place. This should give a boost to the temperatures with afternoon highs of 78-82 except closer to 68-70 at south-facing coastal areas and 50s in ME. The greatest risk of severe thunderstorms is placed over eastern PA, much of NY and western New England. Some of that action could stray into central MA and NH this afternoon and evening. Keep an eye on the sky as a cold frontal boundary pushes into the steamy air.
As energy dives into a developing trough of low pressure digging toward the Mid-Atlantic area, it will intensify and close off into a deep circulation which qualifies for my “Wheel Of Misfortune”! I am as upset and distraught as you are that this system is going to spoil so many wonderful outside activities that have been planned for this holiday weekend. Graduations, parties, weddings, parades, sports, etc. will be impacted by this poor timing. We can only hope and pray that for some reason this wheel will be booted out more quickly so that we may salvage more than just 1 of the 3 days of this Memorial Day Weekend. As it presently stands, a surface storm is slated to be triggered over southeastern MA tomorrow and it will be captured underneath the upper level counterpart. Consequently, it may do a few loops and probably eventually settle just south of Cape Cod. This will place the region in a northeasterly wind which will become brisk and gusty especially along the coast. Bands of rain will migrate and rotate across the area. It actually appears that the steadiest and heaviest rain will occur farther northwest of the storm center with just showers over the Cape. The potential exists for 1-3″ of beneficial rain over much of the area with that lightest amount over the Cape and the heaviest from the Worcester Hills west and north. That will serve to cleanse the air of most of the tree pollen. As the cold frontal boundary inches into the region tonight, numerous showers and storms will be firing. Some could be strong this evening then tamer although very wet conditions with occasional lightning will occur into tomorrow morning. The rain will transition from a more convective type to a steadier rain of varying intensity the rest of tomorrow with showery rains more likely on Sunday. It will cool down through the 60s tomorrow and fail to rise out of the 50-55 range on Saturday and probably Sunday too!
Looking ahead, the storm will shift into the Canadian Maritimes so that backlash clouds and maybe a brief shower is possible on Memorial Day. Enough drying should promote increasing spells of sunshine that afternoon with high temperatures in the lower to middle 60s amidst a gusty westerly wind. Beyond that, building high pressure well such of the Northeast will send a westerly flow of warmer air into the region. It is likely to be nice and sunny with highs in the lower to middle 70s on Tuesday and 76-80 next Wednesday.
Todd Gutner will be following any severe weather this evening and will post a fresh blog and Joe Joyce will be here early tomorrow morning.
Despite the weather, I hope that you can enjoy this holiday weekend as we remember all of the men and women who died serving in the military to preserve the freedom of this country.