Weekend In New England
HAPPY FRIDAY! Looks like we made it through another week and, thankfully, the Weekend In New England is at hand. So far, this week’s afternoon high temperatures in Boston were 59, 62, 42, 47 and 56. Since the cold, windy Tuesday, there have been higher highs through the week and that may continue for one more day assuming it reaches 57 in the city by late this afternoon. After that, another shot of cold, windy weather strikes the area tonight into tomorrow. I’m expecting a 48 at 5pm tomorrow.
A wave of low pressure is tracking east-northeastward well south of New England this morning. The northern fringe of its rain shield will skim by on a line stretching from just south of Providence to just south of Plymouth. There should only be sprinkles along that axis with somewhat steadier rain for a spell closer to the South Coast, the lower Cape Cod and especially the islands. I am not anticipating any more than a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch of rain except maybe up to 0.2″ on Nantucket this morning to early afternoon before the shield shifts offshore. As that is happening, the drier from the north and west will work in and the cloud shield will recede southeastward as the day progresses. Brighter sunshine far north and west of Boston will expand toward and through the city late this morning into the afternoon and that clearing will push onto Cape Cod by late this afternoon. Maximum temperatures will be highest across north central MA into southern NH where it is the brightest for the longest period of time. Hence, highs will close in on 60 degrees in those locations ranging down to near 57 in Boston to 53 on the South Shore to the upper to middle 40s out across Cape Cod. The wind will be southwesterly for the most part at 5-15 mph most of the day then shift to northwesterly with a cold frontal passage late in the day. The passage will occur by 5-6 pm near the MA/NH border to 7pm in the Boston area to 9-10pm on the South Coast and near Cape Cod. There will only be some patches of lower clouds associated with the cold front with the sprinkles to snow showers mainly confined to the northern mountains this afternoon and evening.
Another mass of cold, polar air will be streaming across the area tonight into tomorrow via those howling winds at times. The dry air suggests plentiful bright sunshine tomorrow with decreasing patches of lower clouds over the mountains followed by some streamers and filaments of feathery clouds showing up everywhere in the afternoon. High temperatures will be in the 30s across northern New England except 40-45 closer to the MA border with 45-50 likley in the Boston area southward . After that, an approaching warm front will spill some cloudiness over the region later tomorrow night through much of Sunday. After a start in the lower to middle 30s in the morning, Sunday’s highs will be much higher heading to near or just over 60 thanks to the passage of a warm front and a shift of wind into the south-southwest. There is a slight risk of a sprinkle or light shower during the day but nothing widespread is now indicated.
Looking ahead, the forecast becomes fuzzy and a bit of an enigma much of next week due to an oscillating frontal boundary. The precise placement of the axis will determine how warm or cold it will be and I can be realistic and tell you that there is high bust potential with this. The location of the boundary is very sensitive to the slightest change in the steering currents and with the close proximity of the cold ocean, there is the risk of a large disparity in temperatures across the area. With that said, I will give my best educated prediction based upon current signals. A cold front will arrive early Monday and probably become quasi-stationary over northern MA. Consequently, it should still be warm with highs in the lower to middle 60s on Monday with a risk of a sea breeze developing to cool off the coast. For the Home Opener at Fenway Park as the Red Sox host the Orioles, I am projecting a partly to mostly cloudy sky and a very slight risk of a shower with temperatures possibly falling back from the lower 60s into the 50s. If the front remains to the north, we have a chance at feeling near 70 degrees by Tuesday noon before the front commences its forward march southward yielding a return to much colder weather later in the afternoon and the next several following days. It is inevitable that some impulses will interact with the frontal boundary resulting in episodes of rain and drizzle starting at some point on Wednesday and ending at some point on Friday. The wet weather linked to a cold breeze in from the chilly ocean means you can plan on temperatures in the lower to middle 40s part or most of that period.
Checking the weather records, three years ago today, it warmed up to 72 in Boston and two days later, it was a scorching 90 degrees!
Todd Gutner will post a fresh blog late this afternoon or early this evening.
Joe Joyce will be on duty all day tomorrow and Sunday.
Have a happy and safe first weekend of April.