A More Typical March (With Snow On The Way)
Check out these high temperatures: 74, 74, 67, 78, 83 and 76. Those were recorded respectively on March 18-23, 2012! Can you believe it?
Those same days this March will be 37, 40, 37, 41, 42 and 45. What a contrast, huh? March 2013 is actually turning out more typical. The mean temperature for this month is about a degree above average so far but it appears that the rest of the month will be below average by as much as 5-10 degrees per day.
Consequently, March 2013 will go into the record books as a colder than average March. That is in sharp contrast to last March when it was a whopping 8.4 degrees above the average. Yet, that turned out to be the second warmest March on record behind March 1946 which averaged 0.5 degrees higher.
To add insult to injury so to speak, there is a potential snowstorm on the horizon. It’s not happening this weekend as we watch a weak wave of low pressure dart out to sea south of the region.
There will be varying amounts of high and patchy mid-level cloudiness through midday followed by cloudier conditions over southern New England this afternoon while patches of lower clouds dance across the northern mountains. The batches of snow crossing PA will remain out of our reach as the wind blows at 5-15 mph.
As the system moves farther away, clearing will expand southeastward later tonight with lows in the upper teens to middle 20s. St. Patrick’s Day promises to be mainly sunny with just a few patches of clouds passing through as another cold front zips on by. Temperatures may not exceed the middle 30s in many locations.
Looking ahead, a sprawling high pressure system will expand across southern Canada and ridge into New England tomorrow night and Monday. It will deliver a supply of plentiful cold air with lows Monday morning in the teens to lower 20s and later rises into the middle 30s or so.
As a complex storm system approaches from the west, it will become cloudy Monday afternoon followed by a shield of snow overspreading the region in the evening with time of arrival in Boston estimated at 8-9pm. As it appears presently, the stage is set for up to 1-4″ of snow in the region by 7am Tuesday with a few to several more inches to fall through midday mainly near and north of the MA Pike.
There will be a mix or change to rain near Boston and to all rain over southeastern MA. There will be a strip of snow to sleet inland but where it is all snow from north central MA northward, the preliminary accumulation could easily be in the range of 6-12″ with more than that over the mountains. The primary storm will sail up across the northern Great Lakes while the secondary storm tracks from the NJ coast to outer Cape Cod then up toward Halifax.
The dynamics will become rather impressive with time so this storm definitely bears watching. A slight shift in track would warrant a revision of snow totals but the current solution is quite plausible for now. As the storm slows over the Gulf of ME, snow will linger across northern New England and some of it will backlash into at least northeastern MA Tuesday night into Wednesday morning before tapering off to flurries. It will be quite the introduction for spring Wednesday morning with the vernal equinox at 7:02am!
If any new data warrants a tweaking of this scenario, I will post a fresh update this evening. Otherwise Joe Joyce delivers his latest AccuWeather Forecast in the morning and I shall return later in the day tomorrow.
HAPPY ST. PATRICK’S DAY!