High pressure anchored off our coast is providing just enough dry air this morning to keep much of Massachusetts dry. Light winds from the south are keeping temps in the 40′s and will rise into the lwr-mid 50′s by this afternoon. Temps are surging ahead of a cold front which will eventually break down some of this unseasonal warmth. A plume of moisture extends up the eastern seaboard and these showers will begin to push eastward this afternoon. Showers will be filling in across Worcester county this morning through the midday, and begin to reach the coast as spotty lighter showers by mid afternoon. Meanwhile, where the rain is heavier in western and Central New England, there will be downpours where up to .75″-1.5″ of rain will fall. This heavier rain will be pushing to the coast for the evening commute. Once the rain arrives it will come down heavy at times through the evening for eastern MA.I expect most of the rain to begin winding down after midnight with the front pushing off the coast. Expect winds to pick up from the south later today with these showers. Winds could briefly gust over 30 mph.
The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch for Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning for the heavy rain which will develop. The concern is the rapidly melting snowpack with mild temps and rain will lead to rapid rises on small streams and give way to poor drainage flooding of roadways. So watch out for big puddles and keep the umbrella handy!
High pressure starts builds in tomorrow, but the mild air will remain! Skies will be filled with sunshine. With a mild start in the Lwr 40′s, Any sun with a west wind will help to quickly push temps back into the lwr 50′s. A fine day! Once concern will be the trough and upper low pushing in over us, This cooler air aloft and instability may make for some building PM clouds with sunny to Partly sunny skies. A secondary cold front will push through Wednesday night. This will be the leading edge of the cooler air which be returning to the Northeast to end the week. Thursday and Friday will see seasonably cool temps with breezy NW winds with plenty of sunshine. Highs will remain in the upper 30′s to Lwr 40′s.
The Weekend will start dry, but we will be watching a weak clipper sliding through New England with a few scattered light rain or snow showers on Saturday. It wont amount to much. But we could see some minor accumulation of snow in the NW hills. Mainly a light rainy mix at the coast. Building high pressure with breezy cool NW winds will build in for St. Patrick’s day with highs mainly in the 30′s.
What happens next week is still very much up in the air with a variety of solutions at this point. There is a storm will we have to track. Right now, going off the GFS and the Euro models, there will be a low tracking west up through the Great Lakes with a second low forming off the mid-Atlantic and moving close to New England. This type of track would mean heavy snow likely for northern and Western New England..good for the ski areas..and more of a rainy mix in southern New England, especially at the coast. This storm should be loaded with moisture, so that the area that does remain snow will likely see another foot or more of snow! This will be happening sometime around next Tuesday.
This storm still has too much time to evolve and change. It is almost pointless to speculate, as whatever is said today is sure to be different in few days. Still, a huge block is developing over Greenland as the NAO trends negative. This will help to keep the weather pattern active with several pieces of energy which will continue to pour into the block from Clippers to Nor’easters.. which will keep us busy through March. Stay tuned!