Tracking Midweek Storm….Stays South…But By How Much?
We are still getting information on a midweek storm for the mid-Atlantic states. Information will continue to get better in the coming runs now that the storm is over land. The Low currently sits over Montana and will come barreling into the Plain states this week and eventually off the coast as a much stronger storm. It will have some sort of impact across New England…the question remains how much.
As the low moves into the midwest, it will bring a heavy swath of snow from Minnesota to Chicago. How far this low drops after will be key to determining what track this low will eventually take once off the coast and how it will impact us. The Euro digs an upper low into the Carolinas and keeps the storm far enough away to have a negligible effect on our New England weather…as most of the snow would happen from Ohio to West Virginia and Virginia, and the Delmarva peninsula. This seems to be a favorable track for now because of the blocking in place and high pressure holding stong over us which should deflect most of the energy south.
Of course, forecasting the weather is never easy, and some of the latest information has this storm tracking a bit closer to New England with the moisture shield pushing into SNE. The Japanese , GFS, Canadian, SREF ensembles have all shifted a bit further north and closer to our coast with the latest runs. It will be interesting to see if that trend continues and if the Euro starts to shift north as well. Even with this jog to the north, I still expect the worst of the storm to stay well south with just scattered light snow/rain showers penetrating into SNE.
Whether the low tracks through the Virginias or the Carolinas could have huge implication on our weather here at home. Any tracking farther north will mean the potential for more precipitation…or should we say snow! Air flowing from blocking high pressure over us to deepening low pressure off the coast will get the wind blowing from the east. A large fetch of wind blowing over the water with this deepening storm will get waves building up to 15-25 just off the coast by Thursday. Onshore winds gusting over 40 mph will be possible at the coast. Waves this height will batter the vulnerable coastlines already transformed from the blizzard of 2013 making for more beach erosion and the potential for coastal flooding at high tide due to the piling of water. The most vulnerable spots will be the Cape & Island east and southeast facing beaches and the south shore of MA.
So we feel most confident in saying the wind and waves will be picking up with high to our north and deepening low to our south. The exact track this storm will take is still up in the air and uncertain still, but because of the upper level blocking, we still feel the worst of the storm will be directed south of us. We should still should prepare for future shifts in track, because if this northerly trend continues it could get a bit more interesting by midweek!