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Blocking Rules

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The weather will be stable yet unsettled over the next few days. A blocking pattern from Europe westward to eastern Canada is forcing a storm way out over the North Atlantic to stall and split. Within its large circulation, spokes of energy and moisture will pin wheel cyclonically resulting in lots of clouds yielding spells of showers migrating into northern New England. As the parcels of moisture spin southwestward toward southern New England, they tend to undergo some drying as was the case today. In fact, there was enough to erode the cloudiness and enable a decent supply of sunshine over extreme eastern MA from time to time and over Cape Cod most of the day.  Timing the arrival of these perturbations is tricky so I will simplify the scenario by just stating that there could be some scattered sprinkles or light showers of rain or snow over the next 2-3 days at least. The precipitation will be insignificant with the most snowfall of a few to perhaps several inches only in the most favorable upslope locations over the northern mountains. Nothing more than a coating of snow is possible in central New England mainly during the overnight periods. Daytime high temperatures will be similar through much of the next week in the range of 42-48 degrees. Overnight lows will be close to 30 most places. The wind will be tame in the 5-15 mph range from the west-northwest through Monday then turning into the northeast late Tuesday. After that, a brisk northeasterly wind will blow Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure builds to the north of our region and a deepening storm moves off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. The wind will be strongest on the South Coast and Cape Cod in the tighter pressure gradient. That system is destined to unload 12-18 inches of snow in the higher elevations of western VA, MD and eastern WV Wednesday and Wednesday night. The heavy snow should stay west of the Metro areas of Washington, DC and Baltimore and south of Philadelphia. I still cannot rule out some cloudiness and spotty flakes or sprinkles in our area until that storm has shifted well out to sea by late Thursday or Friday.

Looking ahead, a potent compact upper level disturbance in the northern branch of the jet stream is slated to dive southeastward across Ontario into Quebec then over northern New England and out to sea just east of Boston on Friday and Friday night. It could produce a period of clouds and spotty showers late Friday. A weak ridge of high pressure should then provide bright sunshine next Saturday followed by another impulse rolling in from the Great Lakes and southern Canada to possibly trigger a few flakes early next Sunday. Thereafter, finally, it looks like a large high pressure system will take control as it builds in from the west to create at least two beautiful bright days on Monday, March 11 and Tuesday, March 12. One more thing: one week from tonight Daylight Saving Time returns. We’ll spring forward one hour so the sunset one week from tomorrow will be 6:45pm. SWEEEEET!

For the skiers, riders, snowmobilers, and snowshoers, conditions are superb for your winter sports fun. Many of the northern resorts have been receiving occasional light snow the past couple days with a few resorts reporting several inches of new snow in the favorable upslope locations. More of this is on tap for the next couple of days. Primary surfaces have packed groomed powder with a bit of fresh snow overnight to track first thing each morning. In various areas, some slopes are left ungroomed and natural for variety. Some of the glades at some of the resorts have thin cover especially on the steeper pitches so beware of hitting rocks and roots. In open fields exposed to the sun’s radiation, the snow pack is becoming lean in places with bare spots showing on some trails for snow machines and nordic skiers. NO big snowstorm is expected for this week but the outlook is favorable for stormy spells heading into the middle of this month. Enjoy the wonderful winter landscape and please ski and ride with courtesy and care.

Joe Joyce delivers his latest AccuWeather Forecast in the morning and I shall follow later in the day.

Cheers!

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