We are currently eyeing an ominous batch of precipitation which is currently making very icy conditions from Chicago to Indiana into the Great lakes. This batch of rain has moved from the Midwest and is accompanied with mild air. It is falling as rain, but these locations are coming out of the recent cold…and the ground is still very cold. This rain is freezing on many surfaces and creating a significant ice storm for these areas west of New England.
The same batch will be visiting us on Monday. Our dome of cold air is deeper entrenched, so once this arrives…it will likely start off as snow. This wintry mix is due to incredible lift and warm air advection coming out of the midwest. It is warmer air overriding colder air…which forms a warm front, where steady bathes of mixed precipitation many times falls.
Our Monday will start off dry..even with a little early morning sun. Any sun will quickly fade with a thickening overcast sky which will overspread the region. Snow will begin to push into Western New England by late morning and quickly overspread the region by afternoon. The snow will come down at a steady clip for several hours..primarily around 2-7 PM. With the cold ground, roads will quickly become snow-covered and slick just in time for the evening commute. Minor accumulations are expected in the order of about 1-3″ along and North of the Pike from Worcester to Boston. Even the SE MA may pick up 1-2″ before any mixing occurs. The heaviest snow will happen closer to the cold air which will be in place across Northern New England like NH & VT which could see up to 3-6″ of snow by the time this winds down Monday night as a weak low pushes through.
By around 7 PM, the snow rain line will be advancing north. Snow will be changing to freezing rain across N. CT and western and Central MA, with a rainy mix at the south coast as winds shift to the south. This icy mix will cut down on accumulations along and south of the Pike. Meanwhile around this time…heavy bands of snow may try to develop on this front along the Seacoast of NE and NE MA which could push a few totals over 3″. By midnight, the wintry mix of snow, ice and rain will be tapering off to spotty freezing drizzle into the early morning hours of Tuesday.
The warm front will become a stalled front across SNE Tuesday. Temps may try to climb into the 40’s on the warmer side of the front (south of the Pike). Much of NNE will remain on the cooler side in the 30’s. I expect a mostly cloudy day, but skies should begin to break with at least a little partial sun…for a mainly dry day. The stalled front will begin to lift north Tuesday night which could trigger a few more showers. SW winds will surge mild air into the region behind the front Wednesday with highs climbing into the 50’s nearing 60. The balmy breezy feel won’t last long as an energized cold front will be sliding west-east Late Wednesday through Early Thursday. Rain and wind could be heavy for a time early Thursday with an embedded thunderstorm. Cold WNW winds will settle in behind the front and direct much cooler drier air back into New England with temps dropping back into the 20’s for the weekend. So the air will not be as harshly cold..but it will still feel mighty chilly especially after the brief thaw.
Another Shortwave will slide through on Friday which could provide enough lift to make for another round of light accumulating snowfall around SE MA and the Cape & Islands. This disturbance will help direct this next significant show of arctic air back into New England for the weekend. While the first days of February are looking mighty cold, by mid month the cold appears to lift a little by the 12-15th.The cold will somehow fight itself back into the equation before the month is through. The active colder pattern will likely last into March. Still no big storms to speak of.