Wintry Mix Gives Way to Rainy Pattern
Cold high pressure at the surface with plenty of dry air in the low levels is making for a cold by dry cloudy morning across the region. Scattered light precip has been evaporating and breaking up as it moves into the dry air. This afternoon a surge of warmth aloft will provide for a bit more overrunning which should allow for the precipitation to start to fill in and become steady for the evening hours with a weak wave of low pressure tracking south of New England. Once clouds saturate and thicken enough, precipitation will start as light snow for most by midday, but east winds off warmer water will quickly change any burst of snow to showers south of Boston and along the coast with highs in the Lwr-mid 30's..Near 40 at the south coast. Inland light snow will begin to develop during the afternoon which could give way to some light accumulating snow..a coating to 2" on grassy colder surfaces into the evening hours. Breezy winds will develop on the Cape late today, and there is a slight risk of some minor coastal flooding at eastern beaches with a midday high tide.
A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from noon until 9 a.m. Monday for these areas who will be dealing with light accumulations of snow, sleet and freezing rain in Central/Western MA and much of Northern New England. After light snow accumulates an inch or 2...a transition to sleet and freezing rain in the Northern Worcester Hills, SW NH in the Monadnock region into Hillsboro county could make for some slippery travel on untreated surfaces late today through Monday mornings commute. The colder air here will be tougher to dislodge thanks to some cold air damming away from the onshore marine air.
While Northern New England will remain cold enough for a wintry mix right through Monday morning...Southern New England will be seeing a rainy mix overnight. It looks like it is going to be a wet,breezy Monday morning commute...with icy conditions NW of town. Any morning rain will taper to showers and mist with cool onshore NE winds. Highs will try to warm behind the departing low with the warm advection with temps climbing into the 40's at the coast.
Wave #2 will quickly follow late Monday night and Tuesday. This time, the low will be a bit strong and again track through or just south of New England, deepen and move into the Gulf of Maine Tuesday afternoon. This will come with a period of heavier rainfall for us which will again impact the morning commute on Tuesday. So prepare for two AM commutes to be a very slow go to start the week. This low will come with a surge of mild air which should spike temps into the 50's for SE MA, but remain in the 40's NW of 495. As the rain winds down, and the storm strengthens and pulls away, breezy NW winds will drag in cooler air and could allow for a brief change over to snow...especially in the NW hills. Meanwhile, through all of this, temperatures will remain cold enough for snow in the White Mountains and mountains of Maine that northern ski areas will pile up over a foot of new snow! Great news for skiers heading into the holidays!
Breezy NW winds Wednesday continue Wednesday with a seasonal airmass settling in the Lwr-mid 40's with breaking clouds and increasing sunshine into Thursday. Another trough will be shifting east by Friday with another low taking an inside track up trough the Great Lakes and transporting and mild moist feed up the east coast, for another period of rain late Thursday night through Friday morning. The timing and track could change this far out, but at this point the end of the week storm - Wave #3, does not look good for snow. Cooler breezy NW winds will return temps back into the 30's for the weekend of he 22-23.
It just does not look promising for a White Christmas in SNE this time around, unfortunately.
