Except for some areas of lower clouds on Cape Cod, most of the region basked in bright sunshine much of today with temperatures rising up to the lower 40s. A ridge of high pressure poked down into the area last night and is slowly shifting eastward now. There is plentiful cold air in eastern Canada and northern ME which will play a role in the type of precipitation we receive in the upcoming system. Initially, all levels will be sufficiently cold to support snow as it breaks out in showery form mainly tomorrow afternoon. Farther south of the MA Pike and over southeastern MA, it will be mainly rain with some flakes mixed in. Along the coast closer to Boston and near the coast of the North Shore, there will be a switch to rain with little or no whitening of the ground. Farther northwest of Boston, the spell of snow will be longer lasting leading to the potential of a coating up to an inch or so of snow north of the MA Pike and mainly west of I-495. Eventually, milder air streaming in aloft will cause a turnover to rain but cold air damming at the lower levels may result in temperatures stalling near or under 32 resulting in freezing rain and freezing drizzle with some sleet mixed in. This should happen tomorrow night so it could become slippery across north central MA northward for the Monday morning commute. Snow could accumulate up to 2 or 3 inches across southern interior NH before an icy mix takes over. Farther north up into the Lakes Region and southwestern ME away from the immediate coast, 3 to 5 inches of snow cannot be ruled out with the northern mountains in line for 5 up to 9 inches of snow through Monday evening. Meantime, southern New England will experience mainly plain mist through midday Monday followed by heavier rain arriving from southwest to northeast later Monday afternoon through Monday night into Tuesday morning. From about 5pm Monday to 10am Tuesday is when the heaviest precipitation should fall over the next few days. In this time frame, the snow could turn into a potpourri of frozen stuff over the mountains. A storm will develop over the Ohio Valley and churn into western NY while a secondary storm pivots across southern NJ to Cape Cod. This system will pass off Cape Cod Tuesday afternoon so the rain will taper off to patchy mist at that time. Once it consolidates over ME and the Maritimes, lots of clouds will linger through Wednesday with just a few brief sunny breaks. Temperatures will rise to the middle 40s except lower 50s on Cape Cod Tuesday then be mostly in the middle 40s on Wednesday.
Looking ahead, the one sunny day of next week will happen on Thursday as a ridge of high pressure passes over the region. Right behind this, a vigorous upper level trough of low pressure crossing the Midwest will intensify a surface storm and the primary system will roar up across the eastern Great Lakes while another secondary blossoms over Delmarva and tracks into western New England. Ahead of this feature, the easterly wind will become gusty Friday morning as a shield of moderate to heavy rain passes through followed by a few showers in the afternoon after the passage of the occluded front. The deepening upper level low pressure system will spin over the Northeast next weekend resulting in lots of clouds and scattered flurries. Some heavier squalls may deposit a few additional inches of snow over the northern mountains. There will be a brisk westerly wind.
We’re on White Christmas Watch and as it appears right now, the chance of a White Christmas is dwindling for most of southern New England. Bah Humbug! With that said, the pattern will be active for the next two weeks at least so slight shifting of the steering currents could create a much different scenario. We shall see. THINK SNOW!
Joe Joyce will deliver his latest AccuWeather Forecast all day tomorrow as I take a holiday.
Enjoy the rest of the weekend.