Stellar November Weather
Considering how cloudy and dismal November can be, we are doing pretty well. Starting out this morning, we have lots of November chill out there. Many locations bottomed out in the middle 20’s overnight, but with lots of sun temperatures are rebounding rapidly and will continue to rise through the middle 40’s this afternoon, with upper 40’s in SE MA. There are actually some “ocean effect” clouds out there this morning along SE Mass. These clouds are associated with cold northerly winds flowing over relatively warm ocean waters (a balmy 48-50 degrees). I do expect these clouds to disperse as the boundary layer warms this afternoon, leading to bountiful sun regionwide.
Tonight we are in for another cold one as calm, clear skies set us up for optimal radiational cooling. The coldest spots may dip into the upper teens! Dress warmly if you’re going to be out and about early Sunday.
As we head into Sunday afternoon, the sun will be out there once again and will be dominating the sky as a strong area of high pressure to our north represses any clouds from forming. High temperatures will be consistent with Saturday’s with most places reaching the middle to upper 40’s with very light and variable north-northeast winds. Warmest spots will be southeastern MA, the Cape and Islands where temperatures will approach 50 degrees. The Patriots game in Foxborough will be clear with calm winds and temperatures falling through the lower 40’s. Dress warmly if you will be going to the game!
Looking ahead into next week, there will be a few major features that will control our weather. #1 is the zonal, flat jet stream split flow. With a low-amplitude jet, we will have a very quiet pattern featuring little in the way of disturbances and more in the way of consistent sunshine. #2 will be an area of high pressure. This 1040mb high will be very slow to move, and as it crawls eastward it will continue to influence our weather with large-scale drying, downward motion, (known as subsidence). This will work in tandem with the zonal upper-level flow to produce quiet, sunny weather with slowly moderating temperatures as winds begin to veer more southerly once the high pressure moves offshore…
As we start off the workweek Monday we will see plenty of sunshine once again with temperatures slightly warmer than the previous day, near 50 degrees. We will have to watch some marine stratus that will be nearby offshore… however with relative humidity below 50% throughout much of the depth of the atmosphere I don’t expect much in the way of clouds except for some patchy stratus nearest the coastline and some light cumulus inland .
Tuesday into Wednesday will be very similar again. High pressure will be sliding offshore, and there will be a weak shortwave trough moving across the region aloft. Because this trough will attain its highest amplitude at 300mb (20,000 feet+), upward motion from this disturbance will be limited, and thus I expect more dry weather with some additional clouds Tuesday into the first half of Wednesday. On average skies will be partly cloudy with highs rising through the lower 50’s. A storm moving off the Carolinas and out to sea with help to spread in a few clouds into the northeast during this time, and the surf may rise a bit. Overall a very uneventful pattern which is great news for those who will be out and about travelling for the Thanksgiving holiday.
Thanksgiving will be another gem with mostly sunny skies and temperatures regionwide in the middle 50’s. This will likely be the warmest day of the week, and with light winds and abundant sunshine it will feel closer to 60 degrees. Stellar November weather to say the least!
Friday into the weekend the jet stream gets a little more active as our teleconnection indices advertise a slightly negative NAO. This is the result of increased high-latitude blocking. Despite all these big scary weather words, the immediate implications of this are not anything to be worried about. In fact sun will shine brightly Friday before we see some increased clouds Saturday associated with a cold front and strong shortwave trough which will bring in much cooler air. This cold front will really be felt Sunday as highs may struggle to get above 40 degrees. Overall, nothing significant.
As we head into December, however, the state of the NAO and some long-range computer models indicate a pretty substantial amplification of the polar jet. It is far too early to pinpoint any future storms on the horizon, but I would not be surprised if things get much more active around here come the first week of December.
Enjoy this fantastic stretch of fall weather as we may see an abrupt pattern change to stormy, wintry weather come December!