November 2012 is turning out to be quite different from 1 year ago. It is a study in contrast from way above average temperatures then to below average temperatures so far this month. There have been some very different players in the weather scheme this fall. Blocking has been recurring since last month. It was the catalyst that produced the unprecedented evolution of Superstorm Sandy two weeks ago plus the Nor’easter last week. The type of winter ahead will be governed by the myriad of global factors that produce the hemispheric patterns. The trick is determining which factor(s) will be dominant and how some may change going forward. It is critical to carefully examine these triggers in the month of November to more confidently predict the winter trends. Consequently, I reserve the right to delay my seasonal forecast until the end of the Thanksgiving weekend.
For now, the blocking pattern has broken down and was responsible for a return to above average temperatures today. A large wedge of warmth covers the eastern portion of the country while the west temporarily has chilled with some scattered snow. After tomorrow’s run toward 70 degrees, the colder air from the west will arrive later Tuesday and slightly below average temperatures will exist the rest of this week. It appears that the blocking may gradually redevelop late in the week and perhaps be a more semi-permanent feature going into December base upon some factors that I will describe after Thanksgiving. Presently, there are signs that western Atlantic storminess is in the works late this week and into next week. Additionally, bundles of energy in a splitting jet could enhance low pressure systems in the southern stream. It is too premature to give specifics but it certainly bears watching.
For now, I am certain of a warm Monday but not 100% convinced about the amount of sunshine since there is a risk of some low cloud formation by dawn tomorrow. The air will be moistening overnight so this deck of clouds cannot be ruled out and if it does form, it may be a problem burning them off in places. Consequently, be prepared to see a changeable sky containing those low clouds migrating through with some feathery high clouds above. The approaching cold front will shift eastward during the day but the support for showers will be waning so I am not anticipating any of the heavy rain that is currently happening from Chicago down to Memphis. We will only receive a couple of strings of lighter showers mainly Tuesday morning as temperatures reach the middle to perhaps upper 50s before cooling in the afternoon. Clearing will occur from west to east late Tuesday with clouds and perhaps light showers lingering over Cape Cod and southeastern MA Wednesday morning. Highs in the 50-54 range are probable the second half of the week as a ridge of high pressure builds from the Great Lakes into northern New England and southern Canada. As storm formation commences over the Atlantic, a more brisk northeasterly wind will blow over Cape Cod by next weekend and bands of clouds may stream in from out over the ocean. Beyond that, it’s purely speculation right now.
I want to thank everyone for stopping by to see us at the Boston Ski and Snowboard Expo at the World Trade Center over the past 4 days. We were happy to showcase the WBZ AccuWeather Mobile Lab. I was there for more than 8 hours yesterday chatting with an amazing number of wonderful folks who all enjoy winter sports as I do. They are all hoping for lots of snow this winter. Most of them entered our snowfall contest and the winner of a season pass to Wachusett Ski Area will be announced the first week of May. Good Luck!
Melissa Mack delivers her latest AccuWeather Forecast in the morning and Todd Gutner follows later in the day.
Make it a great week!