Breezy Winds Usher In The Fall Feel
Well, it won’t be in the 70’s today, but it will still be a gorgeous fall day overall!
Clear skies, dry air with cool air settling in behind an upper level low. As High pressure builds to our south, air will be flowing from high to low pressure creating a funneling effect of air through New England which will last through tomorrow.
This means wind will be breezy, especially in the afternoon once the sun is up and the thermals get going. Wind gusts from 20- to- 30- mph from the WNW today & Monday. This wind direction will steer in cooler air from the west with highs in the lower 60’s. Skies will be filled with sunshine, but I can’t rule out pop-up cumulus clouds with the cool cyclonic flow of air aloft. Most clouds will be found in the north and west hills with a drying west wind helping to promote brighter skies and warmer temps at the coast.
After two sunny days, high pressure in Canada will try to slide down providing dense cooler air at the surface. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge will be in place across much of the eastern half of the US with unseasonal warmth and sunshine.
Through the midweek, upper level winds will be from the NW, so this will set up a boundary of cooler air in place across New England from the warmth to our west. The leading edge of this warmth, will approach for the midweek. The warm air overriding the cool air across New England will make for clouds increasing Tuesday afternoon though Wednesday with the risk of a few showers.
We will remain on the cool side of that front with winds shifting to the east which will keep temps in the 50’s to near 60’s from Wednesday into Thursday. The upper level ridge will reestablish itself on the east coast heading into the weekend which should allow for another piece of warmth to make a break for New England by Friday into Saturday with highs back into the 60’s and 70’s.
Meanwhile, we will have to keep a close eye on the tropics as the National Hurricane Center is eye-ing development in the Caribbean which will likely become our 18th tropical storm of the season; Sandy. Here is the NHC’s latest thinking. Where this will go is anyone’s guess. We will have to watch a trough, currently in place across the NW US, slide into the nation with much colder air.
This will be part of the reason for the strengthening ridge on the east coast with warmth. This trough will come with unusually cold air for this time of year. Once again, cold air striking areas which were so hot and dry over the summer…have now undergone four significant cold shots in this early season.
This trough will dig down to the gulf and possibly scoop up some moisture and energy from the Gulf and direct it up the coast for the End of October. The Canadian Model has this trough picking up Sandy from the Caribbean and directing it right into the mid-Atlantic states as a major hurricane! What?! This will not happen likely, but that does show the trough means business and could be a sign of what’s to come down the road, with a -NAO, -AO, Warm AMO and Cold PDO in a Neutral ENSO. Got that?
If not…that is just meteorology speak for the potential for atmospheric blocking, and a cold snowy pattern as pressure will be able to rise over Greenland.
That is exactly what is happening in this upcoming week, -NAO, blocking high over Greenland and a developing trough along the east coast for late October into early November. The pattern with make for some unsettled weather up the east coast toward Halloween, but the real story will be the cold invasion into the US which may stick around through much of the month of November in a more highly amplitude pattern, which will be more favorable for storms and snow.
Expect an early outbreak of lake effect snow across the Great Lakes with this cold. The Climate Prediction Center issued their 8-14 day forecast and it looks much colder all the way down to the Gulf. I am pretty sure we will likely pick up our first accumulating snow in the month of November, at some point. This should get mighty interesting. Miss summer yet? We are just getting started!