Brief Taste of Summer, Then Seasonal
Some of you may have been woken up early this morning by a round of very heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms. Between the hours of 2am and 5am, many towns in the 495-128 belt picked up 1-2 inches of rain which was the cause for localized flooding. In fact, our parking lot here at WBZ was submerged by over a foot of water! Ironically, despite the thunderous start this morning, clouds/ dense fog will clear out rapidly from west to east with plenty of sunshine for the afternoon.
Despite a cold frontal passage today, the immediate post-frontal air mass will be summer-like with high temperatures reaching the lwr-middle 70’s in many locations, with the exception of the Cape and Islands where winds off the water will keep temperatures closer to 70. Average highs this time of year are around 60 degrees, so we’ll be 15 degrees above normal to start the weekend! Southwest winds will be breezy at 10-20mph.
Tonight, skies will remain mostly clear as dry air wraps in behind a departing upper-level trough. Sunday morning, we start off with sunny skies with a few fair-weather cumulus clouds popping up for the afternoon as a “cold pool” moves in aloft. Temperatures will be right around average in the lower 60’s with gusty westerly winds 15-25mph. If you’re lucky enough to be in Foxboro for the Patriots game, temperatures at game time will be around 62 degrees, dropping into the upper 50’s by game’s end.
Heading forward, we have yet another day of sunshine and seasonable temperatures in store for Monday with only a few clouds around for the afternoon. We can thank upper-level ridging and a high pressure center south of the region for this beautiful weather as any weather disturbances will be steered away from the region.
Despite mainly clear skies Monday night into Tuesday morning, low temperatures will be warm for this time of year as a result of warm dew point temperatures in the lower 40’s. This moisture will increase as we head into Tuesday afternoon ahead of a weakening disturbance that should pass mainly south of the region. However, increasing clouds will be likely throughout the afternoon, with a small chance for a spot shower, mainly in the Berkshires and west into New York. Despite the increase in clouds morning sun should again boost us into the lower to middle 60’s.
Wednesday the forecast becomes a little tricky. Although any morning clouds should depart, a high pressure center will begin building in from the north. Meanwhile, cold air will be pooled in southeastern Canada, and with anticyclonic flow around the high pressure center, these cooler temperatures will be right on our doorstep (This would be a great setup if there was an approaching nor’easter!). With winds turning northeasterly during the afternoon, temperatures will struggle to reach 60 degrees, and as the sun sets, will drop rapidly through the 50’s and into the 40’s. This back door cold front bears some watching.
Farther along, the end of the workweek should feature more in the way of sun as ridging peaks across New England. Sometime during the day Friday a week cold front will approach from the west, but exact timing this far out is inherently uncertain. Regardless, it looks to be a rather uneventful frontal passage with little if any precipitation. Temperatures should be more of the same with middle 60’s likely across the region. With such a nice stretch of weather some of you may be asking where is the cold air? Well, a very strong Pacific jet is keeping this cold air locked in Canada. The relatively zonal flow that is the result of this will keep any arctic air well north of the region through at least next week. As we head into November, come climate models are indicating that the polar jet will become more active, and this may shift our pattern to a colder, more wintry one. Inevitably, winter is on its way, and it’s just a matter of time before the snow starts falling!